Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 83.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
AMPX · Why this verdict
Why Amprius Technologies (AMPX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amprius is growing revenue about 126% YoY from a small base and sits 123.8% below its $19.23 analyst target, but it burns cash at 33% of revenue, has a quality score of 2.0/10 and shows weak earnings reliability, making it a speculative recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Amprius revenue reached $34.0 million in the June 2026 quarter versus $15.1 million a year earlier, about 126% YoY growth, with a growth score of 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep ramping toward the $35.7 million next-quarter estimate and beyond. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes off a very small base and sequential increments are slowing, so the rate may fade quickly. | ||
Amprius is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -33% of revenue and a quality score of 2.0/10, below the 4.0 minimum. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn should shrink as revenue scales over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued burn may force dilutive financing, which would erode returns even if revenue keeps growing. | ||
The price of $8.59 is 123.8% below the $19.23 analyst target, with 15.0% downside and a reward-to-risk of 8.26. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $7.99 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is 64% off its 52-week high, so targets have not protected holders. | ||
Earnings results are unreliable, with 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of -33.35%. Avg surprise pct | The next report on November 10 should show a positive surprise and narrowing losses. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPercentage surprises on tiny per-share losses are noisy, so the negative average may overstate the underlying problem. | ||
Insiders sold about $1.27 million over 90 days with no purchases (0.101% of market cap) while short interest is high at 16%. Net value 90d | Insider selling should stay modest and short interest should ease as results improve. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating (holder change 10/10), so insider selling may be incidental and the short interest could fuel a squeeze. | ||
Amprius revenue reached $34.0 million in the June 2026 quarter versus $15.1 million a year earlier, about 126% YoY growth, with a growth score of 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep ramping toward the $35.7 million next-quarter estimate and beyond.
CounterGrowth comes off a very small base and sequential increments are slowing, so the rate may fade quickly.
Amprius is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -33% of revenue and a quality score of 2.0/10, below the 4.0 minimum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn should shrink as revenue scales over the next 12 months.
CounterContinued burn may force dilutive financing, which would erode returns even if revenue keeps growing.
The price of $8.59 is 123.8% below the $19.23 analyst target, with 15.0% downside and a reward-to-risk of 8.26.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $7.99 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is 64% off its 52-week high, so targets have not protected holders.
Earnings results are unreliable, with 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of -33.35%.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The next report on November 10 should show a positive surprise and narrowing losses.
CounterPercentage surprises on tiny per-share losses are noisy, so the negative average may overstate the underlying problem.
Insiders sold about $1.27 million over 90 days with no purchases (0.101% of market cap) while short interest is high at 16%.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay modest and short interest should ease as results improve.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating (holder change 10/10), so insider selling may be incidental and the short interest could fuel a squeeze.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -33% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 126% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 154%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,272,671 (0.104% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.1 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 112%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:8.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.07
Upside
+121.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -64% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.07.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.0, and Insider at 5.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Technical at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Revenue Ramp
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cash Burning Low Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow margin stays below -50% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Large Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12, less than 40% above the current $8.59 price.
- P4Unreliable Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% on the November 10 report.
- P5Insider Selling Short Interest
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $3 million over 90 days from the current $1.27 million.