Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.12: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air, serving 140+ destinations across North America, Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific with hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, Anchorage, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. Passenger revenue... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.12: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicWest Coast markets10-K Item 1A: 'Our strategy involves a high concentration of our business in key West Coast markets. A significant portion of our flights occur to and from our stations in Seattle'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.12: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.40. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $52.88 (+35.1% upside). Prior stop was $36.40. Stop-loss: $36.40.
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).
Alaska Air Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 78.2 (forward 5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover ALK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $59.
What does Alaska Air Group, Inc. do?Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air, serving 140+ destinations across North...
Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air, serving 140+ destinations across North America, Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific with hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, Anchorage, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. Passenger revenue represented 90% of 2025 consolidated revenues; Alaska and Hawaiian received a single FAA operating certificate in October 2025.