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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air to 140+ destinations with hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, and Los Angeles. Revenue is ~90% passenger-derived; domestic routes represent 88% of passenger capacity. Hawaiian integration under a... Read more

$37.52+37.5% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#11 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-7.69%
Stop $35.30Target $51.64(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$57.38+52.9%16 analysts
$51.64our TP
$37.52price
$57.38mean
$94

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)75.4
P/E (Fwd)5.9
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA7.9
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE1.9%
Rev Growth5.2%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.1
Net Margin
0.3
Roe
0.6
Roa
0.9
Current Ratio
1.7
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -433% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
3.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.39Resistance $44.10

Price Targets

$35
$52
A.Upside+37.6%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.52: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.30. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.64 (+37.5% upside). Prior stop was $35.30. Stop-loss: $35.30.

What are the risks of investing in ALK?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is ALK overvalued or undervalued?

Alaska Air Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 75.4 (forward 5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALK?

22 analysts cover ALK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $57.

What does Alaska Air Group, Inc. do?Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air to 140+ destinations with hubs in...

Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air to 140+ destinations with hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, and Los Angeles. Revenue is ~90% passenger-derived; domestic routes represent 88% of passenger capacity. Hawaiian integration under a single FAA operating certificate was completed October 2025.

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