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Alcon Inc. (ALC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $74.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and... Read more

$74.41+14.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#23 of 25 Medical Instruments & Supplies
Stop $70.92Target $85.21(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$94.68+27.2%16 analysts
$85.21our TP
$74.41price
$94.68mean
$113

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $74.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.8
P/E (Fwd)18.5
Mkt Cap$36.4B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.74
Dividend0.48%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C9.48bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$115+54.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
3.6
Quality Rank
5.2
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $72.42Resistance $82.36

Price Targets

$71
$85
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $74.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $70.92. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.21 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $70.92. Stop-loss: $70.92.

What are the risks of investing in ALC?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

Is ALC overvalued or undervalued?

Alcon Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.8 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALC?

20 analysts cover ALC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Alcon Inc. do?Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates...

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and consumables, including viscoelastics, surgical solutions, incisional instruments, surgical custom packs, and other products for surgical procedures. The company's cataract products include Unity CS, LenSx laser system, Verion reference unit and Verion digital marker, ARGOS biometer, SMARTCATARACT health platform, NGENUITY 3D visualization system, LuxOR surgical ophthalmic microscope, and ORA system for intra-operative measurements; ADI cloud-based platform; and implantable products, including monofocal, Toric, and Presbyopia-Correcting IOLs, as well as delivery systems, such as AutonoMe and UltraSert. In addition, it provides Custom Pak surgical procedure packs vitreoretinal products comprising constellation vision systems, procedure packs, lasers and hand-held microsurgical instruments, Grieshaber, MIVS instruments; scissors, forceps and micro-instruments, medical grade vitreous tamponades, and Hypervit probes; and refractive surgery products, including WaveLight and Contoura Vision used for LASIK refractive procedure. Further, the company offers daily disposable, reusable, and color-enhancing contact lenses; ocular health products, such as dry eye, ocular allergies, glaucoma, and contact lens care, as well as ocular vitamins and redness relievers. The company was formerly known as Alcon Universal S.A. and changed its name to Alcon Inc. in December 2001. Alcon Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.

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