Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.51
ALC · Why this verdict
Why Alcon (ALC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has formed a death cross, is trading below its 200-day moving average with the long-term average declining at 3.8% per 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling — a confirmed downtrend that typically requires fundamental catalysts to reverse, not just improving estimates. Momentum breakdown | Price closing above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turning flat or positive would signal the downtrend has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is improving despite the death cross and RSI is at 45 — not at oversold extremes — suggesting the technical setup may be in early-stage recovery rather than continued steep deterioration. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 3.70 indicates options market participants are positioned for downside at nearly four-to-one over calls — a level of bearish concentration that can act as a sustained technical drag on price recovery, particularly when combined with negative price momentum. Key risks | The put-to-call ratio declining below 1.5 over the next 90 days would indicate the bearish options positioning has substantially unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put-to-call ratio can also reflect institutional holders hedging existing long positions for protection rather than expressing a directional short view — if so, the positioning becomes fuel for a sharp recovery when removed. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have risen 5.3% over the past 30 days and three of the past four quarters produced positive earnings surprises — signals that the business may be stabilizing faster than its subdued growth score implies. Catalyst breakdown | Estimates continuing to rise by at least 3% over the next 90 days would indicate analysts are gaining confidence in the earnings trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average earnings surprise is only 3.1% above consensus, a thin margin that could flip to misses if execution stumbles or macroeconomic conditions shift against the medical instruments end market. | ||
Free cash flow converts at 146% of net income, above what reported earnings alone suggest, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects solid balance sheet health — a quality foundation that provides downside support even when top-line growth is subdued. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remaining above net income for the next four quarters would confirm the cash conversion quality is structural rather than a one-period anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong free-cash-flow conversion with weak revenue growth can indicate a business harvesting cash from existing assets rather than reinvesting for growth, which limits future earnings power if the pattern persists. | ||
The stock has formed a death cross, is trading below its 200-day moving average with the long-term average declining at 3.8% per 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling — a confirmed downtrend that typically requires fundamental catalysts to reverse, not just improving estimates.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closing above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turning flat or positive would signal the downtrend has reversed.
CounterThe MACD is improving despite the death cross and RSI is at 45 — not at oversold extremes — suggesting the technical setup may be in early-stage recovery rather than continued steep deterioration.
A put-to-call ratio of 3.70 indicates options market participants are positioned for downside at nearly four-to-one over calls — a level of bearish concentration that can act as a sustained technical drag on price recovery, particularly when combined with negative price momentum.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio declining below 1.5 over the next 90 days would indicate the bearish options positioning has substantially unwound.
CounterAn elevated put-to-call ratio can also reflect institutional holders hedging existing long positions for protection rather than expressing a directional short view — if so, the positioning becomes fuel for a sharp recovery when removed.
Analyst earnings estimates have risen 5.3% over the past 30 days and three of the past four quarters produced positive earnings surprises — signals that the business may be stabilizing faster than its subdued growth score implies.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimates continuing to rise by at least 3% over the next 90 days would indicate analysts are gaining confidence in the earnings trajectory.
CounterThe average earnings surprise is only 3.1% above consensus, a thin margin that could flip to misses if execution stumbles or macroeconomic conditions shift against the medical instruments end market.
Free cash flow converts at 146% of net income, above what reported earnings alone suggest, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects solid balance sheet health — a quality foundation that provides downside support even when top-line growth is subdued.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remaining above net income for the next four quarters would confirm the cash conversion quality is structural rather than a one-period anomaly.
CounterStrong free-cash-flow conversion with weak revenue growth can indicate a business harvesting cash from existing assets rather than reinvesting for growth, which limits future earnings power if the pattern persists.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alcon's confirmed price downtrend and a put-to-call ratio of 3.70 reflect significant near-term bearish sentiment — though rising analyst estimates, 19% upside to the consensus target, and strong cash conversion suggest the setup could improve materially if the earnings momentum visible in three of the past four quarters persists.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 150% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 7.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+5.3%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.3% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 52.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.62
Upside
+13.6%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.62 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Technical at 2.6, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P2Elevated Put Call Ratio Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio declines below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P3Rising Estimates Offset Weak Growth
Trip ifAnalyst EPS estimate revisions turn negative, falling more than 3% over any 30-day period in the next 12 months.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Provides Quality Floor
Trip ifFree-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.