Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.29
ALC · Why this verdict
Why Alcon (ALC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alcon is a medical device maker with a 9/9 Piotroski score and 198% cash conversion, but the price is within 3.3% of the analyst target, revenue growth is modest, and the stock is an overbought rally inside a downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 198% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9/9, indicating high earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterROE (component 1.0/10) and net margin (3.0/10) are weak, so strong cash conversion sits on low reported profitability. | ||
The $71.45 price is only 3.3% below the $73.79 analyst target against 13.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.25. Estimated upside | Analyst targets rise above $80, or the price pulls back toward the $68.45 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts have a favorable rating of 7.33/10, and targets can rise if sales and margins improve. | ||
Revenue growth scores 4.7/10 and forward P/E is 18.1x with a PEG of 1.29, which prices a steady but not fast-growing business. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth accelerates so the PEG falls below 1.2. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith modest growth and a mid-teens multiple, there is little valuation cushion if growth slows. | ||
The RSI of 76 marks an overbought rally while the price remains below a 200-day average falling 2.7% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and the average slope turns flat. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest a recovery, so the rally may continue. | ||
The stock is labeled a dividend aristocrat with a safety component of 8.5/10, but the yield is only 0.5%. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 0.5% yield provides little income to cushion a price decline. | ||
Free cash flow is 198% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9/9, indicating high earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterROE (component 1.0/10) and net margin (3.0/10) are weak, so strong cash conversion sits on low reported profitability.
The $71.45 price is only 3.3% below the $73.79 analyst target against 13.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.25.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $80, or the price pulls back toward the $68.45 stop level.
CounterAnalysts have a favorable rating of 7.33/10, and targets can rise if sales and margins improve.
Revenue growth scores 4.7/10 and forward P/E is 18.1x with a PEG of 1.29, which prices a steady but not fast-growing business.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates so the PEG falls below 1.2.
CounterWith modest growth and a mid-teens multiple, there is little valuation cushion if growth slows.
The RSI of 76 marks an overbought rally while the price remains below a 200-day average falling 2.7% over 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and the average slope turns flat.
CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest a recovery, so the rally may continue.
The stock is labeled a dividend aristocrat with a safety component of 8.5/10, but the yield is only 0.5%.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months.
CounterA 0.5% yield provides little income to cushion a price decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 198% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 78 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $48
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.14
Upside
+2.0%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.2; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.2, Sentiment at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 4.7, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 198%.
- P2Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $78 while the analyst target stays below $75, a gap of more than 4%.
- P3Modest Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth component stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarterly updates.
- P4Overbought Bear Rally
Trip ifShare price falls below the $68.45 stop level, a drop of more than 4.2%.
- P5Dividend Aristocrat Stability
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 0.3% from current 0.5%.