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Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Sell if holding. At $172.37, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.0%; Concentration risk — Product: Invisalign System.

Align Technology designs and markets Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners through two segments: Clear Aligner (~80% of worldwide net revenues in 2025) and Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services (~20%). Products are sold directly to orthodontists, general dental... Read more

$172.37+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 25 Medical Instruments & Supplies
Stop $159.41Target $179.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$206.86+20.0%14 analysts
$179.97our TP
$172.37price
$206.86mean
$240

Sell if holding. At $172.37, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.0%; Concentration risk — Product: Invisalign System. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Invisalign System
Thin upside margin: 5.0%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.9
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$12.8B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta1.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$145-15.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductInvisalign System
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our net revenues are primarily dependent on sales of the Invisalign System and iTero intraoral scanners...Invisalign System to continue to represent the majority'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $164.00Resistance $200.44

Price Targets

$159
$180
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALGN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $172.37, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.0%; Concentration risk — Product: Invisalign System. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $159.41. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ALGN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $179.97 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $159.41. Stop-loss: $159.41.

What are the risks of investing in ALGN?

Concentration risk — Product: Invisalign System; Thin upside margin: 5.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ALGN overvalued or undervalued?

Align Technology, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.9 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALGN?

23 analysts cover ALGN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Align Technology, Inc. do?Align Technology designs and markets Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners through two segments: Clear...

Align Technology designs and markets Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners through two segments: Clear Aligner (~80% of worldwide net revenues in 2025) and Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services (~20%). Products are sold directly to orthodontists, general dental practitioners, DSOs, and dental labs globally; over 22 million patients worldwide have been treated with the Invisalign System.

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