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Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Clear Aligner (80.0%).

Align Technology develops and markets the Invisalign clear aligner system, iTero intraoral scanners, and exocad CAD/CAM software for orthodontic and dental practices globally, with Clear Aligner representing ~80% of worldwide net revenues. Revenue is driven by doctor-prescribed... Read more

$158.60+14.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 25 Medical Instruments & Supplies
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.74%
Stop $151.22Target $181.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$209.07+31.8%14 analysts
$181.89our TP
$158.60price
$209.07mean
$240

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Clear Aligner (80.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Align Technology, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Clear Aligner (80.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.7
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.70
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.48bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$100-36.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductClear Aligner80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Clear Aligner net revenues represented approximately 80% of worldwide net revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Volume
3.1
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.1
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $155.90Resistance $200.44

Price Targets

$151
$182
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALGN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Clear Aligner (80.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $151.22. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALGN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $181.89 (+14.6% upside). Prior stop was $151.22. Stop-loss: $151.22.

What are the risks of investing in ALGN?

Concentration risk — Product: Clear Aligner (80.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ALGN overvalued or undervalued?

Align Technology, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALGN?

24 analysts cover ALGN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $209.

What does Align Technology, Inc. do?Align Technology develops and markets the Invisalign clear aligner system, iTero intraoral scanners, and exocad CAD/CAM...

Align Technology develops and markets the Invisalign clear aligner system, iTero intraoral scanners, and exocad CAD/CAM software for orthodontic and dental practices globally, with Clear Aligner representing ~80% of worldwide net revenues. Revenue is driven by doctor-prescribed Invisalign treatments sold to orthodontists and general practitioners, with over 22 million patients treated to date.

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