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MMEDMiniMed Group, Inc.Sell6.1·$19.29
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MiniMed Group offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 21.7 times with a PEG of 0.14 and solid Piotroski balance-sheet health, but two consecutive earnings misses, RSI at 78 with volume distribution, an elevated put/call ratio of 3.00, and business quality below the minimum floor create a setup where near-term execution risk dominates the statistical cheapness.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum Threshold↓Deteriorating
  • Elevated Bearish Options Positioning↓Deteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings Miss Track Record↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 29, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MiniMed Group, Inc. (MMED) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

Sell if holding. At $19.29, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Convatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

MiniMed Group, spun off from Medtronic, develops automated insulin delivery systems - including the MiniMed 780G and MiniMed Flex pumps paired with Guardian, Simplera and Instinct continuous glucose monitors - alongside the InPen smart insulin pen, competing globally against... Read more

$19.29+18.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#6 of 29 Medical Instruments & Supplies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $17.94Analyst target $22.92(−10% haircut)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst consensus$25.47+32.0%15 analysts with price targets
$22.92Analyst target
$19.29price
$25.47mean
$15
$30

Sell if holding. At $19.29, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Convatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — MiniMed Group, Inc.

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 24, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Convatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)27.8
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA18.5
Profit Mgn-9.7%
ROE-8.7%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta—
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.82bearish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierConvatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sole suppliers include Convatec Group plc for the infusion sets used in our insulin pumps, Forj Medical (f/k/a Intricon Corporation) for transmitters, and Steris plc and Steri-Tech Inc. for sterilization services.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-29Item 5.02LOW
    MiniMed's Board increased its size from nine to 11 members and appointed David Endicott (CEO of Alcon) and Linnea Burman as new independent directors, effective June 29, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Director Brett Wall notified the Board he will resign effective July 3, 2026, following his departure as EVP and President, Neuroscience Portfolio at parent Medtronic plc, which had nominated him; Scott Cundy, a Medtronic SVP, was appointed to fill the vacancy effective the same date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.4
Bollinger
2.5
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.8
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $16.55Resistance $20.15

Price Targets

$18
$23
A.Upside+18.8%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-24 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MMED stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $19.29, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Convatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.94. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MMED stock price target?

Analyst target: $22.92 (+18.8% upside). Prior stop was $17.94. Stop-loss: $17.94.

What are the risks of investing in MMED?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Convatec, Forj Medical and Steris sole-source suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MMED overvalued or undervalued?

MiniMed Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 27.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MMED?

21 analysts rate MMED, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 15 analysts publish price targets averaging $25.

What does MiniMed Group, Inc. do?MiniMed Group, spun off from Medtronic, develops automated insulin delivery systems - including the MiniMed 780G and...

MiniMed Group, spun off from Medtronic, develops automated insulin delivery systems - including the MiniMed 780G and MiniMed Flex pumps paired with Guardian, Simplera and Instinct continuous glucose monitors - alongside the InPen smart insulin pen, competing globally against Dexcom, Insulet, Tandem and Beta Bionics. The company depends on sole suppliers for infusion sets, transmitters and sterilization services, a dependency highlighted by a January 2026 FDA warning letter to its infusion-set manufacturer.

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