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AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%).

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS... Read more

$112.31+2.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#15 of 15 Insurance - Life
Stop $107.72Target $114.72(resistance)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$112.14-0.1%14 analysts
$114.72our TP
$112.31price
$112.14mean
$97
$130

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$59.9B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth-9.9%
Beta0.65
Dividend2.10%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$70-37.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicJapan53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Aflac Japan's adjusted revenues accounted for 53% of the Company's total adjusted revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -9.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -10%
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $109.06Resistance $117.06

Price Targets

$108
$115
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.2% upside)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $107.72. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.72 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $107.72. Stop-loss: $107.72.

What are the risks of investing in AFL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AFL overvalued or undervalued?

AFLAC Incorporated trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AFL?

22 analysts cover AFL with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $112.

What does AFLAC Incorporated do?Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in...

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States. The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans. It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.

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