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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Wait for pullback to $33.08. At $34.17 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services, primarily in the U.S. Revenue is generated from premiums, cost of insurance charges,... Read more

$34.17+13.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#6 of 15 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield43.75%
IncomeYield5.24%(5y avg 4.90%)Payout19.69%sustainable
Entry $33.08(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $30.77Target $37.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$42.83+25.4%12 analysts
$37.26our TP
$34.17price
$42.83mean
$56

Wait for pullback to $33.08. At $34.17 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.8Qual4.8Grw5.6Mom1.2Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer6.8Tech7.8Risk7.46.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Lincoln National Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.5%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.8
P/E (Fwd)4.1
Mkt Cap$6.6B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn9.2%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta1.19
Dividend5.24%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$60+75.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02LOW
    Brian Kroll, EVP and Head of Retail Life and Annuity Solutions of Lincoln National Corporation, notified the Company of his intention to retire effective June 1, 2026. This is described as part of a planned succession for the Retail Life and Annuities businesses.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.03Resistance $38.48

Price Targets

$31
$33
$37
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LNC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $33.08. At $34.17 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $33.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $37.26 (+9.0%), stop $30.77 (−11.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.26 (+13.4% upside). Target $37.26 (+9.0%), stop $30.77 (−11.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $30.77.

What are the risks of investing in LNC?

Thin upside margin: 9.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Negative momentum.

Is LNC overvalued or undervalued?

Lincoln National Corporation trades at a P/E of 3.8 (forward 4.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LNC?

18 analysts cover LNC with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Lincoln National Corporation do?Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments:...

Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company operating insurance and retirement businesses through four segments: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services, primarily in the U.S. Revenue is generated from premiums, cost of insurance charges, investment income, and advisory fees; products are distributed through ~450 LFD wholesalers via financial intermediaries.

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