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ADTNADTRAN Holdings, Inc.Sell5.7·$12.71-6.79%
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ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.71: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality.

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential... Read more

$12.71+33.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 25 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.47%
Stop $12.05Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$19.50+53.4%6 analysts
$16.96our TP
$12.71price
$19.50mean
$23

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.71: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn-3.2%
ROE-4.9%
Rev Growth15.5%
Beta1.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.39bearish
IV98%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.9
Gross Margin
3.7
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
6.3
Piotroski F
8.9
Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.23%=MODERATEMomentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.42Resistance $17.32

Price Targets

$12
$17
A.Upside+33.4%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.71: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.05. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+33.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.05. Stop-loss: $12.05.

What are the risks of investing in ADTN?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is ADTN overvalued or undervalued?

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADTN?

15 analysts cover ADTN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. do?ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United...

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential gateways; ethernet passive optical network ONUs; gigabit passive optical network/XGS-PON ONTs; routers, and switches; edge cloud; carrier ethernet network interface devices; Optical Line Terminals; Packet Aggregation, Copper Access, and Oscilloquartz; optical transport and engine solutions; infrastructure monitoring solution; and training, professional, software, and managed services. The company provides various software, such as Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. It serves large, medium, and small service providers; alternative service providers, such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders; cable/MSOs; and SMBs and distributed enterprises. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

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