Skip to main content

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) is a vertically integrated fiber-optic networking products company targeting internet data centers (42.9%), CATV (53.8%), telecom, and FTTH markets, with all laser chips manufactured domestically in Sugar Land, Texas. Revenue of $455.7M in 2025 is... Read more

$164.50+38.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#18 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-3.24%
Stop $153.69Target $229.00(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$151.30-8.0%5 analysts
$229.00our TP
$164.50price
$151.30mean
$58
$229

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-20.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)35.9
Mkt Cap$13.7B
EV/EBITDA-494.9
Profit Mgn-8.5%
ROE-6.1%
Rev Growth51.4%
Beta3.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV138%elevated
Max Pain$132-19.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.9
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
9.2
Cash-burning: FCF -88% of revenueQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
8.9
Industry growth leader

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 35.9xPEG: 0.04

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.63Resistance $233.67

Price Targets

$154
$229
A.Upside+39.2%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAOI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $153.69. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAOI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $229.00 (+38.6% upside). Prior stop was $153.69. Stop-loss: $153.69.

What are the risks of investing in AAOI?

Target reached (-20.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is AAOI overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 35.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAOI?

13 analysts cover AAOI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. do?Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) is a vertically integrated fiber-optic networking products company targeting internet...

Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) is a vertically integrated fiber-optic networking products company targeting internet data centers (42.9%), CATV (53.8%), telecom, and FTTH markets, with all laser chips manufactured domestically in Sugar Land, Texas. Revenue of $455.7M in 2025 is heavily concentrated in two customers; Digicomm and Microsoft together represented 81.9% of 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: VISN (Vistance Networks, Inc.) · ZBRA (Zebra Technologies Corporation) · LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) · VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) · UI (Ubiquiti Inc.)