Skip to main content

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor (ADPT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Adaptive Biotechnologies provides immune medicine products including clonoSEQ (FDA-authorized NGS assay for MRD detection in blood cancers) and immune medicine research/licensing services. Revenue of $277M in 2025 was 77% driven by the MRD business ($212.3M); clonoSEQ is used in... Read more

$12.96+35.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.79%
Stop $12.12Target $17.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$20.14+55.4%7 analysts
$17.52our TP
$12.96price
$20.14mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: clonoSEQ
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-49.7
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-68.2
Profit Mgn-16.8%
ROE-24.0%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta2.16
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV90%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductclonoSEQ
    10-K Item 1: 'Total MRD revenue in 2025 was $212.3 million, representing 46% growth from 2024. We grew clonoSEQ test volume to 105,587 tests delivered'
  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1A: 'Illumina supplies us with reagents that have been designed for use solely with these sequencers and Illumina is the sole provider of maintenance and repair services'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.4
Volume
1.8
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
8.1
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -16.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
4.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.6
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 0.8%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.50Resistance $15.06

Price Targets

$12
$18
A.Upside+35.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.12. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.52 (+35.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.12. Stop-loss: $12.12.

What are the risks of investing in ADPT?

Concentration risk — Product: clonoSEQ; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is ADPT overvalued or undervalued?

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -49.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADPT?

14 analysts cover ADPT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor do?Adaptive Biotechnologies provides immune medicine products including clonoSEQ (FDA-authorized NGS assay for MRD...

Adaptive Biotechnologies provides immune medicine products including clonoSEQ (FDA-authorized NGS assay for MRD detection in blood cancers) and immune medicine research/licensing services. Revenue of $277M in 2025 was 77% driven by the MRD business ($212.3M); clonoSEQ is used in 180+ active biopharmaceutical trials and by over 300M covered lives.

Related stocks: NEO (NeoGenomics, Inc.) · VCYT (Veracyte, Inc.) · SHC (Sotera Health Company) · GH (Guardant Health, Inc.) · MEDP (Medpace Holdings, Inc.)