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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor (ADPT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.05: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM business licensing immune receptor data to biopharma partners. Total revenue was $277M in 2025, driven by 105,587 clonoSEQ tests (46% growth) and 180+ active... Read more

$14.05+27.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#30 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $13.08Target $17.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$20.57+46.4%7 analysts
$17.90our TP
$14.05price
$20.57mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.05: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-50.4
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-52.8
Profit Mgn-21.5%
ROE-27.8%
Rev Growth51.0%
Beta2.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV143%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1A: 'Illumina supplies us with reagents that have been designed for use solely with these sequencers and Illumina is the sole provider of maintenance and repair services for the Illumina NextSeq System and the NovaSeq X Plus System.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.7
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.36Resistance $15.61

Price Targets

$13
$18
A.Upside+27.4%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.05: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $13.08. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.90 (+27.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.08. Stop-loss: $13.08.

What are the risks of investing in ADPT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).

Is ADPT overvalued or undervalued?

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -50.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADPT?

14 analysts cover ADPT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor do?Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM...

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM business licensing immune receptor data to biopharma partners. Total revenue was $277M in 2025, driven by 105,587 clonoSEQ tests (46% growth) and 180+ active biopharma trials. Illumina is the sole provider of sequencers, reagents, and maintenance services for its lab operations.

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