Value
3.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
ADPT · Why this verdict
Why Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor (ADPT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Adaptive Biotechnologies is growing fast (22% YoY) but has below-floor quality, no moat, heavy insider selling and a price already at its analyst target, with concentration in one product and one supplier.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality score is 3.0, below the 4.0 floor, with FCF margin of 6%, FCF yield of 0.4% and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should expand above 10% as revenue scales for quality to recover. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business is still FCF-positive and growing, so low margins may reflect reinvestment rather than a weak franchise. | ||
Growth is strong at 22% YoY and the growth score is 7.9, yet quarterly revenue has been flat at about $71-72M for three quarters after a $94M quarter in September 2025. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should rise above the $71.6M estimate and show sequential growth over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe $94M quarter in September 2025 looks non-recurring, so underlying run-rate growth may be much lower than 22%. | ||
Revenue depends on a single product (clonoSEQ) and a single supplier (Illumina), both flagged as high concentration risks. Bear case | Revenue should diversify, with no disruption to clonoSEQ volumes or sequencing supply over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in a proven clinical product can also be a strength if clonoSEQ keeps expanding adoption. | ||
The price of $26.64 is above the $26.29 analyst target (upside of -1.3%), with downside of 11.2% to the stop and an expensive valuation. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price for further upside to exist. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may simply lag a re-rating driven by the 22% growth. | ||
Insiders sold about $29.9M (0.702% of market cap) across 53 sales in 90 days with no buys, a bearish signal. Insider transaction read | Insider net selling should fall below $10M over 90 days and the signal return to neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling may be pre-scheduled plans or equity compensation sales, while institutions are accumulating. | ||
Quality score is 3.0, below the 4.0 floor, with FCF margin of 6%, FCF yield of 0.4% and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should expand above 10% as revenue scales for quality to recover.
CounterThe business is still FCF-positive and growing, so low margins may reflect reinvestment rather than a weak franchise.
Growth is strong at 22% YoY and the growth score is 7.9, yet quarterly revenue has been flat at about $71-72M for three quarters after a $94M quarter in September 2025.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should rise above the $71.6M estimate and show sequential growth over 12 months.
CounterThe $94M quarter in September 2025 looks non-recurring, so underlying run-rate growth may be much lower than 22%.
Revenue depends on a single product (clonoSEQ) and a single supplier (Illumina), both flagged as high concentration risks.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue should diversify, with no disruption to clonoSEQ volumes or sequencing supply over the next 12 months.
CounterConcentration in a proven clinical product can also be a strength if clonoSEQ keeps expanding adoption.
The price of $26.64 is above the $26.29 analyst target (upside of -1.3%), with downside of 11.2% to the stop and an expensive valuation.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price for further upside to exist.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may simply lag a re-rating driven by the 22% growth.
Insiders sold about $29.9M (0.702% of market cap) across 53 sales in 90 days with no buys, a bearish signal.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider net selling should fall below $10M over 90 days and the signal return to neutral.
CounterSelling may be pre-scheduled plans or equity compensation sales, while institutions are accumulating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 0.5%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $29,866,921 (0.747% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.8 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸High IV: 116%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.75%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.16
Upside
+1.9%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.15>1.3, MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.16.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Quality at 3.0, and Value at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth But Lumpy Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $70M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Product And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifclonoSEQ share of revenue exceeds 70% of total revenue.
- P3Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds 20% above the $26.29 analyst target without target revisions.
- P4Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.5 from current 3.0.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider 90-day sell value exceeds $50M from current $29.9M.