AECOM offers a meaningful valuation discount and a consistent earnings beat record, but a confirmed price downtrend, a death cross, and heavy options-market hedging argue for patience until technical conditions improve.
Thesis pillars
- Valuation Discount 34pct Upside→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AECOM (ACM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.11: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
AECOM provides infrastructure consulting, design, and program management services to government and private clients across transportation, water, facilities, environmental, and energy markets, generating $16.1 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue with $39.7 billion in backlog. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.11: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 93d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AECOM
About AECOM
AECOM generated $16.1 billion in total revenue in fiscal 2025, with consolidated backlog growing 6.1% year-over-year to $39.7 billion — $32.8 billion in the Americas segment and $6.9 billion internationally. Approximately 50% of revenue came from government entities and 27% from non-U.S. clients. The company employed approximately 51,000 people at fiscal year-end 2025, with roughly 18,000 in the United States.
AECOM earns revenue primarily from fee-based services billed on time-and-materials or cost-plus arrangements, with fiscal 2025 revenue comprised of 38% cost-reimbursable, 37% guaranteed maximum price, and 25% fixed-price contracts. The Americas and International segments serve transportation, water, government, facilities, environmental, and energy end markets through design, program management, and construction management. Government clients — U.S. federal at 7%, U.S. state and local at 24%, and non-U.S. governments at 19% — supply roughly half of revenue, while private entities generate the remainder. AECOM Capital provides co-general partner equity investments in real estate development projects as a separate segment. No individual client exceeded 10% of revenue in any of the past five fiscal years. Competition comes from a highly fragmented field ranging from small regional firms to multi-billion dollar international competitors, with clients selecting among qualifications, experience, reputation, and price.
Show full overview
Government-contract dependence creates structural exposure to U.S. federal appropriations cycles and broader fiscal austerity. Most government contracts fund annually even when performance spans multiple years, and the 10-K notes that appropriations "may be influenced by...the state of the economy, an extended government shutdown, competing priorities for appropriation." The scale of performance commitments illustrates the risk: as of September 30, 2025, AECOM was contingently liable for $5.6 billion in issued surety bonds and had outstanding letters of credit of $903.8 million — guarantees that could become claims if contract performance falters on large fixed-price or guaranteed maximum price projects.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From AECOM's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — AECOM
Latest news
- NEWS ACM Research, Inc. expected to post earnings of 34 cents a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Sei Investments Co. Buys 29,152 Shares of AECOM $ACM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Norges Bank Makes New $205.50 Million Investment in AECOM $ACM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Aecom Technology (ACM) tops Q2 earnings and revenue estimates - msn.com — msn.com positive
- NEWS Aecom Technology (ACM) tops Q2 earnings and revenue estimates - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-08-16T16:17:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomergovernment entities50%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 50% and 46%, respectively, of our revenue was derived from contracts with government entities'
- MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. clients27%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue attributable to our services provided outside of the United States to non-U.S. clients was approximately 27% of our total revenue'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -14.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.11: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $58.69. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $75.62 (+19.8% upside). Prior stop was $58.69. Stop-loss: $58.69.
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
AECOM trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover ACM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $87.
What does AECOM do?AECOM provides infrastructure consulting, design, and program management services to government and private clients...
AECOM provides infrastructure consulting, design, and program management services to government and private clients across transportation, water, facilities, environmental, and energy markets, generating $16.1 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue with $39.7 billion in backlog. The company employs approximately 51,000 people globally; no single client exceeded 10% of revenue, with roughly half of revenue derived from government entities.