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AECOM (ACM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (50.0%).

AECOM is a global provider of infrastructure consulting — advisory, planning, engineering design, construction management, and program management — for governments and private clients across Americas and International segments. Revenue was $16.1 billion in fiscal 2025; no single... Read more

$83.02+28.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#24 of 30 Engineering & Construction
Stop $77.93Target $105.92(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$121.75+46.7%12 analysts
$105.92our TP
$83.02price
$121.75mean
$145

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 28%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (50.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$10.6B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE28.2%
Rev Growth-4.6%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.39%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.82bearish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomergovernment entities50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 50% and 46%, respectively, of our revenue was derived from contracts with government entities'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -5%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
4.3
Value Rank
8.9
Attractive P/E vs peers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.9
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $79.01Resistance $87.66

Price Targets

$78
$106
A.Upside+27.6%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $77.93. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.92 (+28.4% upside). Prior stop was $77.93. Stop-loss: $77.93.

What are the risks of investing in ACM?

Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (50.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is ACM overvalued or undervalued?

AECOM trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACM?

18 analysts cover ACM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $122.

What does AECOM do?AECOM is a global provider of infrastructure consulting — advisory, planning, engineering design, construction...

AECOM is a global provider of infrastructure consulting — advisory, planning, engineering design, construction management, and program management — for governments and private clients across Americas and International segments. Revenue was $16.1 billion in fiscal 2025; no single client exceeds 10% of revenue, but government clients collectively represent approximately 50% of revenue.

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