ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit $28.53 (+28.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.03.

Q: Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.32: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing).

$22.32+28.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#12 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $21.03Target $28.53(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1

Analyst target$31.70+42.0%20 analysts

$28.53our TP

$22.32price

$31.70mean

$17

$45

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.32: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Margin of safety: 36%

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing)

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7

P/E (Fwd)23.3

Mkt Cap$3.8B

EV/EBITDA25.9

Profit Mgn36.5%

ROE39.9%

Rev Growth9.4%

Beta0.83

DividendNone

Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish

IV71%elevated

Max Pain$13-41.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductNUPLAZID and DAYBUE
10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the successful commercialization of our products ... NUPLAZID and DAYBUE'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
Jonathan M. Poole appointed to Board as Class II director and Audit Committee member effective March 3, 2026. Routine board appointment to fill vacancy.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.215%1.08

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth7.415%1.11

Momentum5.810%0.58

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank5.910%0.59

Technical Setup4.15%0.20

Risk Profile4.85%0.24

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)6.25

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

56 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.96Resistance $22.86

Price Targets

$21

$29

A.Upside+27.8%

A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ACAD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.32: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $21.03. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.53 (+28.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.03. Stop-loss: $21.03.

What are the risks of investing in ACAD?

Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5.

Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. do?ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing two products: NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for...

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing two products: NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE (trofinetide) for Rett syndrome, with combined net product sales of $1,071.5 million in 2025. Both are the first and only FDA-approved drugs for their respective indications. The pipeline includes remlifanserin (ACP-204) for Alzheimer's disease psychosis in Phase 2 trials.