Skip to main content

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing).

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products: NUPLAZID (the only approved treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis) and DAYBUE (the only approved treatment for Rett syndrome). Combined net product sales... Read more

$20.67+37.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#81 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.35%
Stop $20.03Target $28.48(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$31.65+53.1%20 analysts
$28.48our TP
$20.67price
$31.65mean
$17
$45

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Margin of safety: 38%
Analyst upside: 38%
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing)
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.4
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA29.6
Profit Mgn34.3%
ROE37.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.86
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$18-12.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
1.6
Volume
3.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.9
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.65Resistance $23.07

Price Targets

$20
$28
A.Upside+37.8%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACAD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $20.03. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.48 (+37.7% upside). Prior stop was $20.03. Stop-loss: $20.03.

What are the risks of investing in ACAD?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. do?ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products:...

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products: NUPLAZID (the only approved treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis) and DAYBUE (the only approved treatment for Rett syndrome). Combined net product sales were $1,071.5M in 2025; remlifanserin (Phase 2) for Alzheimer's disease psychosis is the most advanced pipeline candidate with data readout expected Aug-Oct 2026.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · INCY (Incyte Corporation) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) · HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.) · KRYS (Krystal Biotech, Inc.)