ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit $28.53 (+26.9% upside). Prior stop was $21.23.

Q: Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.52: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing).

$22.52+26.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#12 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $21.23Target $28.53(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.0:1

Analyst target$31.70+40.8%20 analysts

$28.53our TP

$22.52price

$31.70mean

$17

$45

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.52: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Margin of safety: 36%

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing)

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7

P/E (Fwd)23.3

Mkt Cap$3.8B

EV/EBITDA25.9

Profit Mgn36.5%

ROE39.9%

Rev Growth9.4%

Beta0.83

DividendNone

Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish

IV73%elevated

Max Pain$13-42.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductNUPLAZID and DAYBUE
10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the successful commercialization of our products ... NUPLAZID and DAYBUE'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
Jonathan M. Poole appointed to Board as Class II director and Audit Committee member effective March 3, 2026. Routine board appointment to fill vacancy.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.215%1.08

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth7.415%1.11

Momentum5.910%0.59

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank5.910%0.59

Technical Setup3.45%0.17

Risk Profile4.85%0.24

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)6.22

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance

1.9

Bollinger

2.3

52w Position

5.9

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

57 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.96Resistance $22.86

Price Targets

$21

$29

A.Upside+26.7%

A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ACAD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.52: Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $21.23. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.53 (+26.9% upside). Prior stop was $21.23. Stop-loss: $21.23.

What are the risks of investing in ACAD?

Concentration risk — Product: NUPLAZID and DAYBUE; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.4x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5.

Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. do?ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing two products: NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for...

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing two products: NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE (trofinetide) for Rett syndrome, with combined net product sales of $1,071.5 million in 2025. Both are the first and only FDA-approved drugs for their respective indications. The pipeline includes remlifanserin (ACP-204) for Alzheimer's disease psychosis in Phase 2 trials.