Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.68
ACAD · Why this verdict
Why ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACADIA is a high-quality, high-return biotech (ROE 36%, Piotroski 8/9) with revenue growing to about $308M a quarter, but concentrated in two products and a Phase 2 pipeline readout, with earnings due in 3 days. Reward-to-risk of 3.1 at the current price is attractive, though a starter-sized position fits the binary profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business depends on NUPLAZID and DAYBUE and on a single Phase 2 pipeline readout (remlifanserin RADIANT), making outcomes binary in a Biotechnology industry rated speculative. Bear case | Product sales diversify or the pipeline readout validates a third growth driver within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA failed Phase 2 trial or loss of exclusivity on either product could erase a large share of the equity value, and a 133% implied volatility prices this in. | ||
ACADIA earns excellent returns and margins, with ROE of 36%, margins of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, backed by a wide economic moat. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged RED at only 18% FCF/NI, so reported profits may not convert to cash and the high ROE could be flattered by accounting. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen from $205.8M in March 2024 to $308.0M in June 2026, with the next quarter estimated at $332.6M. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches the $332M estimate and keeps growing year over year. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue growth is concentrated in two marketed products, so any pricing, label or competitive setback would hit the whole top line at once. | ||
Earnings land in 3 days after a mixed record: two beats in the last four quarters but a 75% miss in May 2026, so the surprise pattern is erratic. Warnings | The November 4 report beats the consensus estimate and holds EPS surprise above 0%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe put/call ratio of 2.34 and 133% implied volatility suggest traders are hedging for a downside surprise, and the stock is below its 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend. | ||
The stock is 33.4% below the $27.47 analyst target against 10.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.1. Targets | The price moves toward the $27.47 target as earnings and the technical trend improve. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price sits below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.8% over 30 days, and the analyst target may not be reached if momentum stays weak. | ||
The business depends on NUPLAZID and DAYBUE and on a single Phase 2 pipeline readout (remlifanserin RADIANT), making outcomes binary in a Biotechnology industry rated speculative.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Product sales diversify or the pipeline readout validates a third growth driver within 12 months.
CounterA failed Phase 2 trial or loss of exclusivity on either product could erase a large share of the equity value, and a 133% implied volatility prices this in.
ACADIA earns excellent returns and margins, with ROE of 36%, margins of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, backed by a wide economic moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged RED at only 18% FCF/NI, so reported profits may not convert to cash and the high ROE could be flattered by accounting.
Quarterly revenue has risen from $205.8M in March 2024 to $308.0M in June 2026, with the next quarter estimated at $332.6M.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the $332M estimate and keeps growing year over year.
CounterRevenue growth is concentrated in two marketed products, so any pricing, label or competitive setback would hit the whole top line at once.
Earnings land in 3 days after a mixed record: two beats in the last four quarters but a 75% miss in May 2026, so the surprise pattern is erratic.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The November 4 report beats the consensus estimate and holds EPS surprise above 0%.
CounterThe put/call ratio of 2.34 and 133% implied volatility suggest traders are hedging for a downside surprise, and the stock is below its 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend.
The stock is 33.4% below the $27.47 analyst target against 10.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.1.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The price moves toward the $27.47 target as earnings and the technical trend improve.
CounterThe price sits below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.8% over 30 days, and the analyst target may not be reached if momentum stays weak.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 8.4 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 1.4 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 18% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $486,947 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 3.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.55
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.17
Upside
+33.6%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 0d<=7d outcome against Sentiment at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 3.17.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Quality at 7.2, and Peer rank at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Insider at 5.5, and Growth at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.17 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Returns
Trip ifROE falls below 20% from the current 36%.
- P2Steady Revenue Growth Trajectory
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $290M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Product And Pipeline Concentration Risk
Trip ifAny single product's sales fall more than 20% year over year.
- P4Earnings Event And Volatile Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice drops to $18.87, below the stop level, from the current $20.59.