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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. At $6.08, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender with two segments: Structured Business (bridge, mezzanine, and preferred equity loans totaling $12.1B) and Agency Business (Fannie Mae DUS, Freddie Mac, and HUD mortgage origination/servicing with $36.2B servicing... Read more

$6.08+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#15 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield18.48%(5y avg 11.68%)Payout300.00%
Stop $5.65Target $6.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$7.50+23.4%4 analysts
$6.38our TP
$6.08price
$7.50mean
$9

Sell if holding. At $6.08, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.7Qual6.3Grw5.0Mom1.0Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer3.7Tech5.8Risk5.05.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Arbor Realty Trust

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth-10.3%
Beta1.21
Dividend18.48%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$1-83.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 1848.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
2.7
Value Rank
5.1
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.67Resistance $8.54

Price Targets

$6
$6
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $6.08, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $5.65. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the ABR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.38 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $5.65. Stop-loss: $5.65.

What are the risks of investing in ABR?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is ABR overvalued or undervalued?

Arbor Realty Trust trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ABR?

12 analysts cover ABR with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Arbor Realty Trust do?Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender with two segments: Structured Business (bridge, mezzanine,...

Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender with two segments: Structured Business (bridge, mezzanine, and preferred equity loans totaling $12.1B) and Agency Business (Fannie Mae DUS, Freddie Mac, and HUD mortgage origination/servicing with $36.2B servicing portfolio). The Agency Business retains servicing rights on substantially all loans originated.

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