Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae.
Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender originating and servicing commercial real estate loans through its Structured Business (bridge loans, mezzanine, preferred equity for multifamily and SFR) and Agency Business (GSE/HUD loan origination and servicing).... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerFannie Mae10-K Item 1A: 'We satisfy most of our restricted liquidity requirements with Fannie Mae with a letter of credit issued by one of our lenders'
- MEDIUMPropertySFR and BTR lending10-K Item 1A: 'Our growing single‑family rental BTR and construction lending activities expose us to higher credit, development and concentration risks'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWYoni Goodman, age 43, appointed EVP and Chief Operating Officer effective February 17, 2026. Previously Principal at Green Pine Real Estate LLC and President of Meridian Capital Group. New role creation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $7.61. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.12 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $7.61. Stop-loss: $7.61.
Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Arbor Realty Trust trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover ABR with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $9.
What does Arbor Realty Trust do?Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender originating and servicing commercial real estate loans...
Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide REIT and direct lender originating and servicing commercial real estate loans through its Structured Business (bridge loans, mezzanine, preferred equity for multifamily and SFR) and Agency Business (GSE/HUD loan origination and servicing). Income is generated from interest margin on structured loans and origination/servicing fees on agency loans. The Agency Business is heavily dependent on GSE approved-insurer status.