Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.91
- ▸Attractively valued
ABEV · Why this verdict
Why Ambev (ABEV) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ambev is a high-quality, defensive brewer with strong cash conversion and a 5.1% dividend, but growth is weak, momentum is in a downtrend and upside to the analyst target is thin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ambev has strong margins of 18%, excellent cash conversion of 134% FCF/NI and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 7.4. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold above 15% and FCF/NI above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBrewing margins are exposed to input costs and currency swings, which can compress margins quickly. | ||
The stock pays a 5.1% dividend with dividend safety of 6.5, while news sentiment is negative (-0.40) and the put/call ratio is 10.00. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained and the put/call ratio should fall below 3. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPut/call of 10.00 from thin option volume may not reflect broad bearish positioning. | ||
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 3.4/10 and earnings growth scoring 0.0/10 and a growth score of 1.7. Growth | Earnings growth should turn positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA mature, defensive beverage business is not expected to grow quickly, and the valuation already reflects that with a forward P/E of 12.7x. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10, with RSI at 23, falling OBV and price below a still-rising 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 as the pullback in the uptrend ends. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 23 is deeply oversold, and the 200-day average is still rising (+3.3%/30d), so this may only be a pullback. | ||
Upside to the analyst target of $2.78 is only 4.5% from $2.66 against 8.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.51. Targets | Reward-to-risk should improve above 1.5 through a pullback or higher analyst targets. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts see 20% upside before the haircut, so the conservative target may understate potential. | ||
Ambev has strong margins of 18%, excellent cash conversion of 134% FCF/NI and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 7.4.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold above 15% and FCF/NI above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterBrewing margins are exposed to input costs and currency swings, which can compress margins quickly.
The stock pays a 5.1% dividend with dividend safety of 6.5, while news sentiment is negative (-0.40) and the put/call ratio is 10.00.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained and the put/call ratio should fall below 3.
CounterPut/call of 10.00 from thin option volume may not reflect broad bearish positioning.
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 3.4/10 and earnings growth scoring 0.0/10 and a growth score of 1.7.
↓DeterioratingGrowth
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA mature, defensive beverage business is not expected to grow quickly, and the valuation already reflects that with a forward P/E of 12.7x.
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10, with RSI at 23, falling OBV and price below a still-rising 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 as the pullback in the uptrend ends.
CounterAn RSI of 23 is deeply oversold, and the 200-day average is still rising (+3.3%/30d), so this may only be a pullback.
Upside to the analyst target of $2.78 is only 4.5% from $2.66 against 8.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.51.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should improve above 1.5 through a pullback or higher analyst targets.
CounterAnalysts see 20% upside before the haircut, so the conservative target may understate potential.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.1 |
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $187,739 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 5.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.13
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.4; weakest: Momentum at 1.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Quality at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Growth at 1.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Generating Brewer
Trip ifFCF/NI falls below 80% from current 134%.
- P2Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Oversold Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 1.5 from current 2.6.
- P4Thin Upside Negative Skew
Trip ifPrice falls below the $2.55 stop level, more than 4% below current $2.66.
- P5Dividend And Bearish Sentiment
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 3% from current 5.1% due to a payout cut.