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YSSYork Space Systems Inc.Sell4.7·$32.25+5.74%
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York Space Systems Inc. (YSS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality.

York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating spacecraft platforms, software, and ground systems primarily for national security customers. Revenue flows through long-term fixed-price government contracts; the Space... Read more

$32.25+9.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#43 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
Stop $30.22Target $35.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$34.67+7.5%9 analysts
$35.65our TP
$32.25price
$34.67mean
$26
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About York Space Systems Inc.

About York Space Systems Inc.

York Space Systems held a backlog of approximately $543 million covering 107 spacecraft at December 31, 2025, sourced almost entirely from U.S. Department of Defense programs. The company's 60,000-square-foot Potomac facility targets capacity for over 1,000 satellites annually, and York completed its initial public offering in January 2026 at $34 per share on the NYSE. The Space Development Agency represented substantially all revenue and backlog at year-end.

York generates revenue primarily under long-term firm-fixed-price contracts with the DoD through the Space Development Agency's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture program. Under FFP contracts, York absorbs all cost overruns, creating execution risk but enabling the company to monetize platform commonality: three spacecraft classes — S-CLASS, LX-CLASS, and M-CLASS — share approximately 75% of hardware and 95% of software, reducing non-recurring engineering costs across programs. Recurring revenue from in-orbit software services, downlink antenna usage through more than 45 global ground stations acquired via the ATLAS Space Operations acquisition, and hardware replacement cycles expected every five to six years is intended to grow as the installed base expands. The Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract, with a ceiling of $151 billion, positions York to compete for task orders in the Golden Dome missile defense program.

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York's customer concentration is acute: the SDA accounted for substantially all revenue as of December 31, 2025, and the 10-K identifies a change in SDA mandate or spending as a principal risk. Separately, the company acknowledged four material weaknesses in internal controls at the time of its January 2026 IPO; three were remediated, but the weakness in over-time revenue recognition remained unremediated at year-end. If the current administration reduces DoD discretionary spending or alters the PWSA program, York's backlog conversion and future order rate could be materially impaired.

See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

From York Space Systems Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Space Development Agency
Target reached (-7.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)60.9
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA-36.6
Profit Mgn-47.4%
ROE
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV137%elevated
Max Pain$65+101.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerSpace Development Agency
    10-K Item 1A: 'our revenues and backlog from our largest customer, the Space Development Agency'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Janine A. Davidson as Class II director effective April 10, 2026, expanding board to eight members. Dr. Davidson also appointed to the Audit Committee. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
2.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M

Unprofitable operations — net margin -47.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
5.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.5
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $24.25Resistance $36.38

Price Targets

$30
$36
A.Upside+10.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YSS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.22. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YSS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.65 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $30.22. Stop-loss: $30.22.

What are the risks of investing in YSS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Space Development Agency; Target reached (-7.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is YSS overvalued or undervalued?

York Space Systems Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 60.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YSS?

13 analysts cover YSS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $35.

What does York Space Systems Inc. do?York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating...

York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating spacecraft platforms, software, and ground systems primarily for national security customers. Revenue flows through long-term fixed-price government contracts; the Space Development Agency accounted for substantially all revenue and backlog of approximately $543 million as of December 31, 2025.

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