York Space Systems is an aerospace and defense company with strong growth scores and volume accumulation but is losing money in every quarter reported, with earnings misses averaging negative 271% over 2 quarters, high customer concentration in the Space Development Agency, and quality below the minimum floor at 3.4.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Accelerating Losses→Stable
- Space Development Agency Concentration↑Improving
- Growth Momentum Volume Accumulation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
York Space Systems Inc. (YSS) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.
York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating spacecraft platforms, software, and ground systems primarily for national security customers. Revenue flows through long-term fixed-price government contracts; the Space... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.
About York Space Systems Inc.
About York Space Systems Inc.
York Space Systems held a backlog of approximately $543 million covering 107 spacecraft at December 31, 2025, sourced almost entirely from U.S. Department of Defense programs. The company's 60,000-square-foot Potomac facility targets capacity for over 1,000 satellites annually, and York completed its initial public offering in January 2026 at $34 per share on the NYSE. The Space Development Agency represented substantially all revenue and backlog at year-end.
York generates revenue primarily under long-term firm-fixed-price contracts with the DoD through the Space Development Agency's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture program. Under FFP contracts, York absorbs all cost overruns, creating execution risk but enabling the company to monetize platform commonality: three spacecraft classes — S-CLASS, LX-CLASS, and M-CLASS — share approximately 75% of hardware and 95% of software, reducing non-recurring engineering costs across programs. Recurring revenue from in-orbit software services, downlink antenna usage through more than 45 global ground stations acquired via the ATLAS Space Operations acquisition, and hardware replacement cycles expected every five to six years is intended to grow as the installed base expands. The Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract, with a ceiling of $151 billion, positions York to compete for task orders in the Golden Dome missile defense program.
Show full overview
York's customer concentration is acute: the SDA accounted for substantially all revenue as of December 31, 2025, and the 10-K identifies a change in SDA mandate or spending as a principal risk. Separately, the company acknowledged four material weaknesses in internal controls at the time of its January 2026 IPO; three were remediated, but the weakness in over-time revenue recognition remained unremediated at year-end. If the current administration reduces DoD discretionary spending or alters the PWSA program, York's backlog conversion and future order rate could be materially impaired.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From York Space Systems Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — York Space Systems Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Swarmer Posts Downbeat Q2 Results, Joins TSS, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Globant And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Friday’s — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Needham Maintains Buy on York Space Systems, Lowers Price Target to $18 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Eton Pharmaceuticals Shares Are Trading Higher By 22%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session — benzinga Aug 13, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T18:17:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerSpace Development Agency10-K Item 1A: 'our revenues and backlog from our largest customer, the Space Development Agency'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Janine A. Davidson as Class II director effective April 10, 2026, expanding board to eight members. Dr. Davidson also appointed to the Audit Committee. No officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -50.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.16. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.65 (+152.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.16. Stop-loss: $10.16.
Concentration risk — Customer: Space Development Agency; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
York Space Systems Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover YSS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.
What does York Space Systems Inc. do?York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating...
York Space Systems is a U.S.-based space and defense prime contractor designing, manufacturing, and operating spacecraft platforms, software, and ground systems primarily for national security customers. Revenue flows through long-term fixed-price government contracts; the Space Development Agency accounted for substantially all revenue and backlog of approximately $543 million as of December 31, 2025.