Value
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 46.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
YSS · Why this verdict
Why York Space Systems (YSS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Both quarters of reported earnings history show significant misses: negative 498% in May 2026 and negative 45% in March 2026, with actual losses of $0.68 versus an estimated $0.11 in the most recent quarter, indicating that costs are running far ahead of analyst models. Earnings | EPS loss per quarter narrows to less than $0.20 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating the loss rate is decelerating toward breakeven. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage aerospace manufacturers have inherently lumpy cost structures driven by fixed launch preparation and satellite integration expenses, and the current loss rate may normalize as production scales. | ||
York Space Systems' revenues are heavily concentrated with the Space Development Agency as its primary customer, meaning any government budget freeze, contract renegotiation, or program cancellation at that single agency could eliminate a substantial share of revenue without near-term alternatives. Bear case | York announces at least 1 additional government or commercial customer contract within 12 months, reducing the Space Development Agency's share of total revenue below 70%. | →Stable |
| CounterDefense contractors with single-agency concentration often retain that concentration for many years as programs have long multi-year contracts with high switching costs, meaning the risk may be structural rather than near-term. | ||
The company scores strongly on growth with revenue growth and strong earnings growth estimates, and volume accumulation via rising on-balance volume alongside positive momentum signals suggest that some buyers believe the long-term satellite production thesis is intact despite near-term losses. Momentum breakdown | Revenue grows by more than 30% year-over-year in the next reported quarter, validating the growth thesis that is currently priced into the momentum score. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in a low-quality, loss-making aerospace company can reflect speculative buying on a long-duration growth story rather than fundamental demand, and may reverse when a larger miss materializes. | ||
Quality score of 3.4 falls below the 4.0 minimum floor, and the put-to-call ratio of 1.57 indicates options participants are net long puts, consistent with institutional hedging against the concentrated-customer and loss-rate risks in a sub-$5 billion market cap aerospace name. Risk breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as gross margins become positive and operating losses begin to contract. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality score recovery in pre-profitability aerospace companies requires achieving positive gross margin first, which depends on production volume ramping to cover fixed manufacturing overhead costs. | ||
Both quarters of reported earnings history show significant misses: negative 498% in May 2026 and negative 45% in March 2026, with actual losses of $0.68 versus an estimated $0.11 in the most recent quarter, indicating that costs are running far ahead of analyst models.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS loss per quarter narrows to less than $0.20 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating the loss rate is decelerating toward breakeven.
CounterEarly-stage aerospace manufacturers have inherently lumpy cost structures driven by fixed launch preparation and satellite integration expenses, and the current loss rate may normalize as production scales.
York Space Systems' revenues are heavily concentrated with the Space Development Agency as its primary customer, meaning any government budget freeze, contract renegotiation, or program cancellation at that single agency could eliminate a substantial share of revenue without near-term alternatives.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- York announces at least 1 additional government or commercial customer contract within 12 months, reducing the Space Development Agency's share of total revenue below 70%.
CounterDefense contractors with single-agency concentration often retain that concentration for many years as programs have long multi-year contracts with high switching costs, meaning the risk may be structural rather than near-term.
The company scores strongly on growth with revenue growth and strong earnings growth estimates, and volume accumulation via rising on-balance volume alongside positive momentum signals suggest that some buyers believe the long-term satellite production thesis is intact despite near-term losses.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue grows by more than 30% year-over-year in the next reported quarter, validating the growth thesis that is currently priced into the momentum score.
CounterRising on-balance volume in a low-quality, loss-making aerospace company can reflect speculative buying on a long-duration growth story rather than fundamental demand, and may reverse when a larger miss materializes.
Quality score of 3.4 falls below the 4.0 minimum floor, and the put-to-call ratio of 1.57 indicates options participants are net long puts, consistent with institutional hedging against the concentrated-customer and loss-rate risks in a sub-$5 billion market cap aerospace name.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as gross margins become positive and operating losses begin to contract.
CounterQuality score recovery in pre-profitability aerospace companies requires achieving positive gross margin first, which depends on production volume ramping to cover fixed manufacturing overhead costs.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
York Space Systems is an aerospace and defense company with strong growth scores and volume accumulation but is losing money in every quarter reported, with earnings misses averaging negative 271% over 2 quarters, high customer concentration in the Space Development Agency, and quality below the minimum floor at 3.4.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸High IV: 138%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.92
Upside
+28.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.2, and Value at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Momentum at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Space Development Agency Concentration
Trip ifSpace Development Agency contract value declines by more than 25% in any announced contract modification, indicating program scope reduction.
- P2Earnings Miss Accelerating Losses
Trip ifEPS loss per quarter exceeds $1.00 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, rising more than 47% above the $0.68 most recent miss.
- P3Growth Momentum Volume Accumulation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in the next reported quarter, declining more than 20 percentage points below the current growth trajectory.
- P4Quality Below Floor Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 2.5, exceeding the current 1.57 level by more than 59%.