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WPCW. P. Carey Inc. REITSell5.8·$71.32+0.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

W. P. Carey is a high-quality diversified REIT with strong margins near 30% and a consistent earnings beat history, but the stock is trading at or above its near-term target price with negative asymmetry, making new entry unfavorable despite solid underlying business fundamentals.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Reit MarginsStable
  • Earnings Beat HistoryStable
  • Target Exceeded Negative AsymmetryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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W. P. Carey Inc. REIT (WPC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (61.0%).

W. P. Carey is an internally-managed net-lease REIT that owned 1,682 properties across 25 countries at December 31, 2025, totaling approximately 183 million sq ft at 98.0% occupancy, leased to 371 tenants on leases averaging 12.0 years. Revenue comes from triple-net leases with... Read more

$71.32+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 13 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.18%
IncomeYield5.27%(5y avg 5.78%)Payout156.41%
Stop $68.34Target $74.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$78.50+10.1%12 analysts
$74.47our TP
$71.32price
$78.50mean
$85

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About W. P. Carey Inc. REIT

About W. P. Carey Inc. REIT

W. P. Carey owned 1,682 net-leased properties totaling approximately 183 million square feet across 25 countries at December 31, 2025, at a 98.0% net-lease occupancy rate with a weighted-average lease term of 12.0 years. The portfolio generated annualized base rent approximately 61% from U.S. properties and 33% from European assets, concentrated in single-tenant industrial, warehouse, and retail facilities critical to tenant operations. Investment-grade tenants accounted for 15% of total ABR, with another 7% designated implied investment grade.

W. P. Carey earns revenue primarily through triple-net leases requiring tenants to pay substantially all operating costs — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — leaving the company's cash flows relatively insulated from property-level expense inflation. Leases are structured on a full-recourse basis; 99.7% of ABR provides rent adjustments, split between CPI-linked (48.4%) and fixed scheduled increases (48.2%). The company specializes in sale-leaseback transactions, purchasing a company's critical real estate and leasing it back long-term, a model that historically produces more predictable income than other commercial real estate investments. About 19% of leases by ABR are scheduled to expire within the next five years, requiring active management of re-leasing risk. Consolidated indebtedness stood at $8.7 billion at December 31, 2025 — a debt-to-gross-assets ratio of 43.4% — supported by a $2.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. During 2025, W. P. Carey sold 63 self-storage operating properties, following the November 2023 Spin-Off of 59 office properties into Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP).

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W. P. Carey's lease portfolio carries rollover execution risk: the 10-K notes that properties designed for specific tenant needs may require renovation or rent concessions to attract replacement tenants, and that real estate investments are generally less liquid than financial assets — limiting the ability to quickly adjust the portfolio in response to market changes. Additionally, $140.6 million in non-recourse property-level mortgage debt at December 31, 2025 carries covenants tied to loan-to-value ratios, debt service coverage, and material adverse changes in tenant conditions — creating default exposure if property values or tenant cash flows deteriorate.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

From W. P. Carey Inc. REIT's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (61.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.5
P/E (Fwd)20.6
Mkt Cap$15.9B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn29.7%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.79
Dividend5.27%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States61%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 61% of our contractual minimum annualized base rent ("ABR") was generated by properties located in the United States'
  • MEDIUMGeographicEurope33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our real estate properties located in Europe represented 33% of our ABR'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.85Resistance $75.99

Price Targets

$68
$74
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.34. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.47 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $68.34. Stop-loss: $68.34.

What are the risks of investing in WPC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (61.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Is WPC overvalued or undervalued?

W. P. Carey Inc. REIT trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WPC?

18 analysts cover WPC with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $79.

What does W. P. Carey Inc. REIT do?W. P. Carey is an internally-managed net-lease REIT that owned 1,682 properties across 25 countries at December 31,...

W. P. Carey is an internally-managed net-lease REIT that owned 1,682 properties across 25 countries at December 31, 2025, totaling approximately 183 million sq ft at 98.0% occupancy, leased to 371 tenants on leases averaging 12.0 years. Revenue comes from triple-net leases with 61% of annualized base rent from U.S. properties and 33% from Europe; 99.7% of leases include rent escalators.

Related stocks: BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.) · VICI (VICI Properties Inc.) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) · GNL (Global Net Lease, Inc.)
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