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Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.61 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, split 46% Industrial/Distribution, 27% Retail, and 27% Office by straight-line rent. The portfolio is diversified across 231 tenants... Read more

$9.61-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#7 of 7 REIT - Diversified
Stop $9.26Target $9.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$10.00+4.1%8 analysts
$9.55our TP
$9.61price
$10.00mean
$8
$12

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.61 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-56.0
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn-45.5%
ROE-7.1%
Rev Growth-15.1%
Beta1.06
Dividend7.98%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.11bullish
IV34%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMPropertyOffice segment27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 27% of our annualized straight-line rent (calculated as of December 31, 2025) is attributable to our Office segment'
  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Michigan| | 13%'
  • LOWGeographicUnited Kingdom10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'United Kingdom| | 10%'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    P. Sue Perrotty and Governor Edward Rendell will not stand for re-election at GNL's 2026 Annual Meeting, retiring at conclusion of current terms. Notification given April 1, 2026. No disagreement with the Company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -15.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -15%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.10Resistance $9.74

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.4% upside)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.61 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $9.26. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

What is the GNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.55 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $9.26. Stop-loss: $9.26.

What are the risks of investing in GNL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Is GNL overvalued or undervalued?

Global Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -56.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GNL?

13 analysts cover GNL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Global Net Lease, Inc. do?Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the...

Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, split 46% Industrial/Distribution, 27% Retail, and 27% Office by straight-line rent. The portfolio is diversified across 231 tenants and 71 industries with no single tenant exceeding 6% of income.

Related stocks: WPC (W. P. Carey Inc. REIT) · ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) · SAFE (Safehold Inc. New) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.)