WMT trips three V9 gates simultaneously (momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold), NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE) with overall score 4.9/10 and rich valuation (Forward P/E 36.6x, PEG 4.48) — the engine signals reducing position despite strong technical and Consumer Defensive sector tailwind.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality subscore of 4.0 with gross_margin 1.0/10, operating_margin 1.7/10, FCF/NI RED FLAG at 31%, and key_risks 'Below-average business quality' indicates thin-margin retail economics. Key risks | Quality subscore climbs above 5.0 with gross_margin component above 3.0 over 4 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterDiscount retail is structurally low-margin; the quality score may be permanently capped at this level by industry economics. | ||
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8 (bull_case[0]) layers a structural defensive bonus in the current regime. Bull case (item 1) | Consumer Defensive sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.5) across the next 4 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterSector bonus is overwhelmed by V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty (-0.5) and 3 failed V9 gates — modifier alone cannot rescue the verdict. | ||
Forward P/E 36.6x and PEG 4.48 (value.notes) with peer value_rank 1.74/10 mark WMT as one of the most expensive names in its peer set; key_risks lists 'Rich valuation' explicitly. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 25x or PEG falls below 2.5 over 4 quarters via earnings growth catching up. | →stable |
| CounterDefensive compounders persistently trade at premium multiples; mean-reversion may not occur in any reasonable timeframe. | ||
Quality subscore of 4.0 with gross_margin 1.0/10, operating_margin 1.7/10, FCF/NI RED FLAG at 31%, and key_risks 'Below-average business quality' indicates thin-margin retail economics.
→stable- Expectation
- Quality subscore climbs above 5.0 with gross_margin component above 3.0 over 4 quarters.
CounterDiscount retail is structurally low-margin; the quality score may be permanently capped at this level by industry economics.
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8 (bull_case[0]) layers a structural defensive bonus in the current regime.
→stable- Expectation
- Consumer Defensive sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.5) across the next 4 refreshes.
CounterSector bonus is overwhelmed by V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty (-0.5) and 3 failed V9 gates — modifier alone cannot rescue the verdict.
Forward P/E 36.6x and PEG 4.48 (value.notes) with peer value_rank 1.74/10 mark WMT as one of the most expensive names in its peer set; key_risks lists 'Rich valuation' explicitly.
→stable- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 25x or PEG falls below 2.5 over 4 quarters via earnings growth catching up.
CounterDefensive compounders persistently trade at premium multiples; mean-reversion may not occur in any reasonable timeframe.
▸ Show 2 more pillars (SSR-indexed, visually truncated)▾ Show fewer
V9 gates_failed lists momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot, and NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE simultaneously — edge_type=NO_EDGE and position_size_recommendation=AVOID.
→stable- Expectation
- At least 2 of 3 failed gates must clear (MOMENTUM>=4.5 AND ASYMMETRY>=1.5) within 2 quarters to restore a buy setup.
CounterLeadership-change news gates are time-decay items that auto-clear; momentum and asymmetry could improve quickly on a pullback.
Technical subscore 9.0 with bollinger 10/10 and momentum notes 'Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity' suggests a tradable mean-reversion despite weak fundamentals.
→stable- Expectation
- Technical subscore stays >= 8.0 and RSI normalizes between 40-60 within 1 quarter.
CounterFalling OBV (volume distribution) and ma_position only 4.0/10 contradict the pullback-buy thesis — distribution may continue.
Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-05-30Recent Developments — Walmart Inc.
Latest news
- Target Skids Despite Beat-And-Raise Report. Walmart Earnings Due. - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- How To Earn $500 A Month From Walmart Stock Ahead Of Q1 Earnings - Benzinga — Benzinga neutral
- Walmart (WMT) Research Report - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- Ahead of Walmart Earnings, Here Is What Barchart Options Data Shows for WMT Stock - Barchart.com — Barchart.com neutral
- WMT Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN — CNN neutral
Generated 2026-05-30T00:22:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $126.78 (+9.5%), stop $111.27 (−4.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $126.78 (+9.5% upside). Target $126.78 (+9.5%), stop $111.27 (−4.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $111.27.
Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Expensive valuation.
Walmart Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.9 (forward 36.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
48 analysts cover WMT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $138.
What does Walmart Inc. do?Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile...
Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. It offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.