Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats offer near-term support, but a forward P/E of 36.4x and PEG of 4.68 leave the shares richly valued relative to growth, while free cash flow at only 30% of net income signals a quality shortfall. With approximately 5.9% remaining to the analyst price target and a risk/reward that barely clears 1-to-1, the setup favors patience over new exposure.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 36.4x and PEG of 4.68 place the shares at a significant premium to growth — flagged as a key risk — suggesting that all near-term upside is already priced in and leaving limited room for multiple expansion. Valuation breakdown | If the valuation thesis proves wrong, the forward P/E should compress toward 25x or below as earnings growth re-rates the multiple over the next 12 months, making the shares attractive on a growth-adjusted basis. | →Stable |
| CounterA premium multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst to compress it; analyst sentiment currently skews constructive, which can sustain the current price even absent fundamental improvement, particularly for a company delivering consistent earnings beats. | ||
An RSI reading of 27 signals an oversold condition within a longer-term uptrend — confirmed by rising on-balance volume and a price still trading above the 200-day moving average — suggesting the current weakness is a pullback rather than a trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 within 8 weeks and price advances toward the analyst target of $126.89 without the 200-day moving average being breached, confirming the uptrend remains intact. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum indicators sit only marginally above the minimum passing threshold, with a soft-watch caution attached; an oversold reading within a high-valuation, below-average-quality stock can deepen into a sustained decline if the fundamental headwinds remain unresolved, and the ongoing leadership change introduces near-term headline uncertainty. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 30% of net income — flagged as a red flag in earnings quality — meaning reported profits are converting into cash at a rate that may be insufficient to fully support the current valuation and dividend obligations. Quality breakdown | If cash conversion improves, the free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should recover above 60% over the next 12 months, providing a more durable foundation for dividends and any capital return program. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates the financial structure is otherwise solid; a low free-cash-conversion rate, if transient, may not immediately impair dividend payments — particularly given that the dividend payout stands at 83% and a rich multiple can persist if investors treat the gap as temporary. | ||
A forward P/E of 36.4x and PEG of 4.68 place the shares at a significant premium to growth — flagged as a key risk — suggesting that all near-term upside is already priced in and leaving limited room for multiple expansion.
→Stable- Expectation
- If the valuation thesis proves wrong, the forward P/E should compress toward 25x or below as earnings growth re-rates the multiple over the next 12 months, making the shares attractive on a growth-adjusted basis.
CounterA premium multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst to compress it; analyst sentiment currently skews constructive, which can sustain the current price even absent fundamental improvement, particularly for a company delivering consistent earnings beats.
An RSI reading of 27 signals an oversold condition within a longer-term uptrend — confirmed by rising on-balance volume and a price still trading above the 200-day moving average — suggesting the current weakness is a pullback rather than a trend reversal.
→Stable- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 within 8 weeks and price advances toward the analyst target of $126.89 without the 200-day moving average being breached, confirming the uptrend remains intact.
CounterMomentum indicators sit only marginally above the minimum passing threshold, with a soft-watch caution attached; an oversold reading within a high-valuation, below-average-quality stock can deepen into a sustained decline if the fundamental headwinds remain unresolved, and the ongoing leadership change introduces near-term headline uncertainty.
Free cash flow represents only 30% of net income — flagged as a red flag in earnings quality — meaning reported profits are converting into cash at a rate that may be insufficient to fully support the current valuation and dividend obligations.
→Stable- Expectation
- If cash conversion improves, the free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should recover above 60% over the next 12 months, providing a more durable foundation for dividends and any capital return program.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates the financial structure is otherwise solid; a low free-cash-conversion rate, if transient, may not immediately impair dividend payments — particularly given that the dividend payout stands at 83% and a rich multiple can persist if investors treat the gap as temporary.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats — the most recent by 2.75%, preceded by beats of 1.79% and 28.79% — following a miss in August 2025 suggest a pattern of delivering ahead of expectations that can sustain near-term investor confidence.
→Stable- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to four or more consecutive quarters over the next 12 months, with positive earnings surprise percentages maintained in each reported period.
CounterA leadership change underway introduces execution risk that can disrupt guidance discipline; the beat streak includes one large outlier of 28.79% that flatters the trailing average, and the two most recent quarters came in at only 2.75% and 1.79% above estimates — margins narrow enough to flip negative if underlying conditions weaken.
Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Sell if holding. At $116.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.
Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our... Read more
Sell if holding. At $116.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-25Recent Developments — Walmart Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Target Skids Despite Beat-And-Raise Report. Walmart Earnings Due. - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS How To Earn $500 A Month From Walmart Stock Ahead Of Q1 Earnings - Benzinga — Benzinga neutral
- NEWS Walmart (WMT) Research Report - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Ahead of Walmart Earnings, Here Is What Barchart Options Data Shows for WMT Stock - Barchart.com — Barchart.com neutral
- NEWS WMT Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN — CNN neutral
Generated 2026-06-25T04:07:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $116.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $113.78. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $127.56 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $113.78. Stop-loss: $113.78.
Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Expensive valuation.
Walmart Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.0 (forward 36.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
48 analysts cover WMT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $139.
What does Walmart Inc. do?Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to...
Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our other service offerings.