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WMWaste Management, Inc.Buy Wait5.5·$238.75+0.62%
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Waste Management is a high-quality business with a 30% return on equity and top-tier peer ranking on quality, but the stock has only 6.2% upside to analyst targets, two recent earnings misses, and sits below its 200-day moving average, leaving insufficient margin of safety at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Return On EquityStable
  • Thin Upside To Analyst TargetDeteriorating
  • Recent Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-28). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $223.71. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $238.75. Engine's entry $223.71 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away).

Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and... Read more

$238.75-2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#2 of 8 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.23%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 1.49%)Payout49.49%sustainable
Entry $223.71(support + ATR)Stop $214.37Target $242.21(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$257.92+8.0%25 analysts
$242.21our TP
$238.75price
$257.92mean
$220
$285

Wait for pullback to $223.71. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $238.75. Engine's entry $223.71 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — Waste Management, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.8% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.4
P/E (Fwd)25.9
Mkt Cap$95.9B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn11.0%
ROE29.9%
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta0.45
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.68bearish
IV39%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. _Retirement of Mr. Carrasco_ On May 8, 2026, Mr. Rafael E.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $221.00Resistance $247.15

Price Targets

$214
$224
$242
A.Upside-2.8%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.8% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $223.71. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $238.75. Engine's entry $223.71 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $242.21 (+1.4%), stop $214.37 (−11.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the WM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $242.21 (-2.8% upside). Target $242.21 (+1.4%), stop $214.37 (−11.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $214.37.

What are the risks of investing in WM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is WM overvalued or undervalued?

Waste Management, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 25.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WM?

39 analysts cover WM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $258.

What does Waste Management, Inc. do?Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the...

Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities. When we use the term "WMI," we are referring only to Waste Management, Inc., the parent holding company.

Related stocks: WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) · RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin)
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