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WINGWingstop Inc.Sell5.1·$169.48+4.43%
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Wingstop Inc. (WING) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.48: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Weak growth.

Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which approximately 98% are franchised. Revenue comes from royalties (6% of gross sales) and advertising fees (5.5% of gross sales) from franchisees, plus company-owned... Read more

$169.48+24.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#12 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.98%
IncomeYield0.74%(5y avg 0.42%)Payout28.89%sustainable
Stop $157.61Target $211.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$234.79+38.5%28 analysts
$211.31our TP
$169.48price
$234.79mean
$140
$305

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.48: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 25%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging
Weak growth
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.0
P/E (Fwd)29.0
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA24.8
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.80
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$540+218.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierone distributor for all food and packaging
    10-K Item 1A: 'all food items and packaging goods for Wingstop restaurants are currently sourced through one distributor with 23 geographically diverse distribution centers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
Gap
4.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $120.00Resistance $172.74

Price Targets

$158
$211
A.Upside+24.7%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts37
Consensus4.3/5
Avg Target$235

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WING stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.48: Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $157.61. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WING stock price target?

Take-profit target: $211.31 (+24.7% upside). Prior stop was $157.61. Stop-loss: $157.61.

What are the risks of investing in WING?

Concentration risk — Supplier: one distributor for all food and packaging; Weak growth; Elevated risk factors.

Is WING overvalued or undervalued?

Wingstop Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.0 (forward 29.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WING?

37 analysts cover WING with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $235.

What does Wingstop Inc. do?Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which...

Wingstop is the largest fast-casual chicken wing restaurant chain with 3,050+ locations worldwide, of which approximately 98% are franchised. Revenue comes from royalties (6% of gross sales) and advertising fees (5.5% of gross sales) from franchisees, plus company-owned restaurant operations. Domestic average unit volume was ~$2.0 million in fiscal 2025; digital sales exceed 60% of system sales.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.)
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