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WDHWaterdrop Inc.Sell6.0·$1.20+3.45%
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Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life... Read more

$1.20+39.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 14 Insurance - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.00%Payout23.92%sustainable
Stop $1.12Target $1.67(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$1.97+64.1%3 analysts
$1.67our TP
$1.20price
$1.97mean
$2

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 2, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 64%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$431M
EV/EBITDA-0.2
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth64.8%
Beta-0.12
Dividend5.00%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.2
Rsi
3.0
Macd
4.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.08Resistance $1.47

Price Targets

$1
$2
A.Upside+39.2%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-02 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $1.12. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WDH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1.67 (+39.2% upside). Prior stop was $1.12. Stop-loss: $1.12.

What are the risks of investing in WDH?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is WDH overvalued or undervalued?

Waterdrop Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WDH?

7 analysts cover WDH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $2.

What does Waterdrop Inc. do?Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with...

Waterdrop Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online insurance brokerage services to match and connect users with related insurance products underwritten by insurance companies in the People's Republic of China. The company offers short-term and long-term health and life insurance products and services. It also operates a medical crowdfunding platform; and E-Find, a clinical trial patient recruitment platform for pharmaceutical companies to find matches for clinical trials. In addition, the company provides technical services to insurance brokerage or agency companies through customer relationship management systems. Waterdrop Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

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