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Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $15.94. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.02. Engine's entry $15.94 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and... Read more

$16.02+41.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 12 Insurance - Diversified
Entry $15.94(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $14.26Target $22.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.6:1Setup A.R:R 5.9:1
Analyst target$26.00+62.3%2 analysts
$22.10our TP
$16.02price
$26.00mean
$27

Wait for pullback to $15.94. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.02. Engine's entry $15.94 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.20, quality 9.0/10, growth 9.2/10). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn37.4%
ROE61.4%
Rev Growth23.7%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.9
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $13.70Resistance $17.82

Price Targets

$14
$16
$22
A.Upside+38.0%
A.R:R2.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.3%
Max %2.6%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XZO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $15.94. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.02. Engine's entry $15.94 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.20, quality 9.0/10, growth 9.2/10). Target $22.10 (+38.0%), stop $14.26 (−12.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.9:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XZO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.10 (+41.6% upside). Target $22.10 (+38.0%), stop $14.26 (−12.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.9:1. Stop-loss: $14.26.

What are the risks of investing in XZO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is XZO overvalued or undervalued?

Exzeo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about XZO?

7 analysts cover XZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Exzeo Group, Inc. do?Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The...

Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and underwriting, policy management, claims processing management, data reporting, and financial reporting. It serves property and casualty insurance industry. The company was formerly known as TypTap Insurance Group, Inc. Exzeo Group, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tampa, Florida. Exzeo Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of HCI Group, Inc.

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