WaFd trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.40 and strong momentum, but has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters and a recent news-driven downgrade to a cautious hold stance reflects deteriorating near-term sentiment.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
- Earnings Inconsistency Miss Pattern→Stable
- Breakout Momentum Above All Mas→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.87 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.9% away).
WaFd Bank operates 208 branches across nine western states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, and Texas), serving consumers and businesses through commercial real estate, multi-family, construction, and business lending. The bank's net... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.87 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About WaFd, Inc.
About WaFd, Inc.
WaFd Bank held a $20.1 billion net loan portfolio at September 30, 2025 — representing 75.2% of total assets — spread across nine western states through 208 branches in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, and Texas. Primary regulators include the Washington State Department of Financial Institutions, the FDIC, the Federal Reserve, and the CFPB. In January 2025, the bank exited single-family mortgage origination to refocus on commercial lending, incurring a $5.4 million restructuring charge and estimating approximately $17 million in annual expense savings.
WaFd earns revenue primarily from net interest income on its loan book and investment portfolio. At September 30, 2025, commercial loans comprised 59.5% of gross loans — multi-family at 22.2%, commercial real estate at 16.9%, and commercial and industrial at 11.2% — while the legacy single-family residential portfolio still represented 37.9% of gross loans despite the exit from new origination. Principal funding comes from retail and business deposits across the nine-state footprint, supplemented by FHLB–Des Moines advances on a credit line available up to 45% of total assets and Federal Reserve Bank borrowings as a backstop. The February 2024 merger with Luther Burbank Corporation added approximately $7.7 billion in LBC assets and ten California branches, expanding the footprint materially and bringing the single-family residential portfolio to its current scale.
Show full overview
WaFd's income statement is disproportionately sensitive to interest rate movements because net interest income is the primary earnings driver and a structural asset-liability mismatch exists between long-duration fixed-rate single-family residential loans and shorter-duration deposit liabilities. The 10-K flags that fixed-rate home loans are 'longer-term in nature than the customer accounts and borrowed money' funding them, exposing income to compression if short-term rates rise faster than long-term asset yields. The Federal Reserve implemented modest cuts in September and October 2025; however, if the FOMC reversed course and rapidly raised rates, the interest rate spread could narrow and may adversely affect operating results.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From WaFd, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — WaFd, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Investors brace for WaFd earnings as margin pressures persist By Investing.com - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS WAFD Q3'26 Earnings: EPS estimate is 0.81 USD - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS WaFd faces earnings test as credit concerns mount - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS WaFd Inc expected to post earnings of 81 cents a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Stocks Q4 Highlights: WaFd Bank (NASDAQ:WAFD) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T11:32:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliosingle-family residential loans38%10-K Item 1: 'Single-family residential| 8,053,771| 37.9'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.87 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.84. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.63 (-12.6% upside). Prior stop was $36.84. Stop-loss: $36.84.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
WaFd, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover WAFD with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $39.
What does WaFd, Inc. do?WaFd Bank operates 208 branches across nine western states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, New...
WaFd Bank operates 208 branches across nine western states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, and Texas), serving consumers and businesses through commercial real estate, multi-family, construction, and business lending. The bank's net loan portfolio totaled $20.1 billion at September 30, 2025 (75.2% of total assets), with revenue from net interest income on loans and investments funded primarily by core deposits from those nine states.