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WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

WaFd Bank is a Washington state commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states, offering lending, deposit, insurance, and wealth management services. Revenue comes primarily from interest on loans and investments; net loan portfolio was 20.1 billion dollars (75.2%... Read more

$35.50-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#91 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $33.84Target $35.30(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$37.00+4.2%4 analysts
$35.30our TP
$35.50price
$37.00mean
$38

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.4% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.6%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth9.2%
Beta0.82
Dividend3.08%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.70bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$30-15.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductfixed-rate single-family home loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'our significant portfolio of fixed-rate single-family home loans, which are longer-term in nature than the customer accounts and borrowed money that constitute our liabilities'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    On February 27, 2026, WaFd Board appointed Erin Hill as director effective March 2, 2026, filling vacancy from David K. Grant whose term expired. Hill also appointed to WaFd Bank board. Compensation consistent with other non-employee directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.15Resistance $36.02

Price Targets

$34
$35
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WAFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $33.84. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WAFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.30 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $33.84. Stop-loss: $33.84.

What are the risks of investing in WAFD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is WAFD overvalued or undervalued?

WaFd, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WAFD?

9 analysts cover WAFD with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $37.

What does WaFd, Inc. do?WaFd Bank is a Washington state commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states, offering lending,...

WaFd Bank is a Washington state commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states, offering lending, deposit, insurance, and wealth management services. Revenue comes primarily from interest on loans and investments; net loan portfolio was 20.1 billion dollars (75.2% of total assets) at September 30, 2025. In January 2025, the bank exited single-family mortgage origination to focus on commercial lending.

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