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WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: total commercial loans (59.5%).

WaFd Bank is a Washington state-chartered commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states (WA, OR, ID, AZ, UT, NV, NM, CA, TX), focused on commercial lending, construction, and historically single-family residential loans (now exiting that market). The $21.3B gross... Read more

$34.87+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#82 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.08%(5y avg 3.21%)Payout35.41%sustainable
Stop $32.98Target $37.82(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$37.00+6.1%4 analysts
$37.82our TP
$34.87price
$37.00mean
$38

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: total commercial loans (59.5%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — WaFd, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: total commercial loans (59.5%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.6%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth9.2%
Beta0.85
Dividend3.08%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliototal commercial loans60%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total commercial loans| 12,651,754| 59.5'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliosingle-family residential38%
    10-K Item 1: 'Single-family residential| 8,053,771| 37.9|'
  • LOWloan_portfoliomulti-family22%
    10-K Item 1: 'Multi-family| $4,718,480| 22.2%|'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryFDIC
    10-K Item 1: 'the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), its primary federal regulator, which insures its deposits up to applicable limits'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Erin Hill appointed to Board effective March 2, 2026, filling vacancy created by David K. Grant whose term expired at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Hill also serves on Audit and Finance Committees. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.00Resistance $38.59

Price Targets

$33
$38
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WAFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: total commercial loans (59.5%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $32.98. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WAFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.82 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $32.98. Stop-loss: $32.98.

What are the risks of investing in WAFD?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: total commercial loans (59.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is WAFD overvalued or undervalued?

WaFd, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WAFD?

9 analysts cover WAFD with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $37.

What does WaFd, Inc. do?WaFd Bank is a Washington state-chartered commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states (WA, OR, ID, AZ,...

WaFd Bank is a Washington state-chartered commercial bank with 208 branches across nine western states (WA, OR, ID, AZ, UT, NV, NM, CA, TX), focused on commercial lending, construction, and historically single-family residential loans (now exiting that market). The $21.3B gross loan portfolio is led by single-family residential (37.9%), multi-family (22.2%), and commercial real estate (16.9%).

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