Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
WAFD · Why this verdict
Why WaFd (WAFD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WaFd trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.40 and strong momentum, but has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters and a recent news-driven downgrade to a cautious hold stance reflects deteriorating near-term sentiment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WaFd's forward P/E of 10.7x and PEG ratio of 0.40 suggest the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its earnings growth rate, offering potential value for patient holders if the growth trajectory can be maintained. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E remains below 13x and analyst price targets hold above $40 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow PEG ratios at small regional banks can be misleading if the earnings growth estimate is inflated by a one-time interest rate benefit; sustainable growth below that rate would make the valuation less compelling. | ||
WaFd missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with actual EPS falling below consensus in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that execution consistency has been a challenge even as the forward valuation looks attractive. Earnings | Earnings misses stop and the company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat with a 9.3% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may have been a temporary setback rather than a structural problem. | ||
WaFd's price is above all major moving averages with a golden cross formation, rising on-balance-volume, and a bullish MACD reading, placing it in a technical breakout setup despite the negative near-term news modifier. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days over the next 12 months without a confirmed death cross. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio is -2.08 with the stock priced more than 14% above analyst price targets, meaning the technical breakout is occurring at levels where fundamental valuation provides no support. | ||
WaFd's Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 34% indicate a financially sound institution with improving balance sheet metrics, which provides a fundamental cushion against the near-term earnings inconsistency. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 7 out of 9 through the next two annual reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong Piotroski scores at banks can lag the real-time credit quality picture; loan portfolio stress is often not reflected in backward-looking financial ratios until losses materialize. | ||
WaFd's forward P/E of 10.7x and PEG ratio of 0.40 suggest the stock is priced at a meaningful discount to its earnings growth rate, offering potential value for patient holders if the growth trajectory can be maintained.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E remains below 13x and analyst price targets hold above $40 over the next 12 months.
CounterLow PEG ratios at small regional banks can be misleading if the earnings growth estimate is inflated by a one-time interest rate benefit; sustainable growth below that rate would make the valuation less compelling.
WaFd missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with actual EPS falling below consensus in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting that execution consistency has been a challenge even as the forward valuation looks attractive.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings misses stop and the company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat with a 9.3% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may have been a temporary setback rather than a structural problem.
WaFd's price is above all major moving averages with a golden cross formation, rising on-balance-volume, and a bullish MACD reading, placing it in a technical breakout setup despite the negative near-term news modifier.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 90 days over the next 12 months without a confirmed death cross.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio is -2.08 with the stock priced more than 14% above analyst price targets, meaning the technical breakout is occurring at levels where fundamental valuation provides no support.
WaFd's Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 34% indicate a financially sound institution with improving balance sheet metrics, which provides a fundamental cushion against the near-term earnings inconsistency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 7 out of 9 through the next two annual reporting cycles.
CounterStrong Piotroski scores at banks can lag the real-time credit quality picture; loan portfolio stress is often not reflected in backward-looking financial ratios until losses materialize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 6.6 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:61d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.53
Upside
-12.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Insider at 5.9, and Momentum at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $32, more than 12% below the current price of $36.59.
- P2Earnings Inconsistency Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS falls below $0.65 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating an acceleration of the miss trend.
- P3Breakout Momentum Above All Mas
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days.
- P4Financial Quality Piotroski Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 out of 9, indicating deterioration in balance sheet quality.