Vornado Realty Trust has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades at 6.3x price-to-operating cash flow with a 30% margin of safety, but its portfolio is 78% office properties concentrated 88% in New York, the price is well above its analyst target, and a put-to-call ratio of 4.35 signals heavy bearish hedging.
Thesis pillars
- Office Geographic Double Concentration→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Recent Earnings Beat Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · REIT - Office
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%).
Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million square feet of street retail, and 1,331 residential units, plus THE MART (3.7M sq ft) in Chicago and a 70% interest in 555 California Street (1.8M sq ft) in San... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Vornado Realty Trust
About Vornado Realty Trust
Vornado Realty Trust concentrated approximately 88% of 2025 NOI in the New York metropolitan area, drawing from 51 Manhattan operating properties that include 19.2 million square feet of office space — source of roughly 78% of 2025 NOI — and 2.3 million square feet of street retail accounting for approximately 16% of NOI, with 1,331 residential units alongside THE MART (3.7 million square feet) in Chicago and a 70% controlling interest in 555 California Street (1.8 million square feet) in San Francisco's financial district.
Vornado earns revenue through multi-year office and retail leases on Manhattan properties; no single tenant exceeded 10% of total revenues in 2025, 2024, or 2023. The office portfolio — concentrated in the New York metropolitan area, which the company describes as the largest office market in the United States — faces competition from newer and more amenitized Class A buildings, requiring ongoing capital expenditure to maintain competitive positioning. Active redevelopments include PENN 2 (1,825,000 square feet, $750 million estimated cost, $724.8 million expended as of December 31, 2025) and 623 Fifth Avenue (383,000 square feet, $450 million estimated cost, $222.6 million expended), with the latter targeted for tenant delivery in 2027. Vornado also holds a 32.4% interest in Alexander's, Inc., which owns the 1.1 million square foot Bloomberg, L.P. headquarters at 731 Lexington Avenue, and a 49.9% equity stake in the Sunset Pier 94 Studios joint venture (266,000 square feet, $350 million estimated development cost) formed with Hudson Pacific Properties and Blackstone.
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The 78% NOI concentration in office space subjects Vornado to structural shifts in how tenants use physical space. The 10-K identifies work-from-home and hybrid-work policies, and the potential for artificial intelligence to prompt tenants to reconfigure or reduce footprints, as ongoing risks that may adversely affect demand. At the same time, 350 Park Avenue represents a binary decision point: Citadel in December 2025 exercised an option to anchor a new 1,850,000 square foot tower, giving the Vornado/Rudin JV until July 2026 to take a 23%–40% ownership stake or receive a $900 million put payment — which could either add a major new office asset or generate significant liquidity.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Office
From Vornado Realty Trust's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Vornado Realty Trust
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $29 — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Hold on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $39 — benzinga Jun 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Scotiabank Maintains Sector Perform on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $38 — benzinga Jun 18, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Outperform on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $43 — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $43 — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertyoffice78%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 78% of our net operating income ("NOI" a non-GAAP measure) is from our office properties'
- HIGHGeographicNew York metropolitan area88%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 88% of our NOI is from properties located in the New York metropolitan area'
- LOWPropertyManhattan retail16%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 16% of our NOI is from Manhattan retail properties'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $39.79 (-1.9%), stop $38.48 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.79 (-1.9% upside). Target $39.79 (-1.9%), stop $38.48 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $38.48.
Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Vornado Realty Trust trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 162.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover VNO with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $36.
What does Vornado Realty Trust do?Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million...
Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million square feet of street retail, and 1,331 residential units, plus THE MART (3.7M sq ft) in Chicago and a 70% interest in 555 California Street (1.8M sq ft) in San Francisco. Revenue comes from leasing to office and retail tenants, with approximately 88% of 2025 NOI from the New York metropolitan area.