Vornado Realty Trust has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades at 6.3x price-to-operating cash flow with a 30% margin of safety, but its portfolio is 78% office properties concentrated 88% in New York, the price is well above its analyst target, and a put-to-call ratio of 4.35 signals heavy bearish hedging.
Thesis pillars
- Office Geographic Double Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Excellent Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Recent Earnings Beat Record↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Real Estate · REIT - Office
Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%).
Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million square feet of street retail, and 1,331 residential units, plus THE MART (3.7M sq ft) in Chicago and a 70% interest in 555 California Street (1.8M sq ft) in San... Read more
Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Vornado Realty Trust
About Vornado Realty Trust
Vornado Realty Trust concentrated approximately 88% of 2025 NOI in the New York metropolitan area, drawing from 51 Manhattan operating properties that include 19.2 million square feet of office space — source of roughly 78% of 2025 NOI — and 2.3 million square feet of street retail accounting for approximately 16% of NOI, with 1,331 residential units alongside THE MART (3.7 million square feet) in Chicago and a 70% controlling interest in 555 California Street (1.8 million square feet) in San Francisco's financial district.
Vornado earns revenue through multi-year office and retail leases on Manhattan properties; no single tenant exceeded 10% of total revenues in 2025, 2024, or 2023. The office portfolio — concentrated in the New York metropolitan area, which the company describes as the largest office market in the United States — faces competition from newer and more amenitized Class A buildings, requiring ongoing capital expenditure to maintain competitive positioning. Active redevelopments include PENN 2 (1,825,000 square feet, $750 million estimated cost, $724.8 million expended as of December 31, 2025) and 623 Fifth Avenue (383,000 square feet, $450 million estimated cost, $222.6 million expended), with the latter targeted for tenant delivery in 2027. Vornado also holds a 32.4% interest in Alexander's, Inc., which owns the 1.1 million square foot Bloomberg, L.P. headquarters at 731 Lexington Avenue, and a 49.9% equity stake in the Sunset Pier 94 Studios joint venture (266,000 square feet, $350 million estimated development cost) formed with Hudson Pacific Properties and Blackstone.
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The 78% NOI concentration in office space subjects Vornado to structural shifts in how tenants use physical space. The 10-K identifies work-from-home and hybrid-work policies, and the potential for artificial intelligence to prompt tenants to reconfigure or reduce footprints, as ongoing risks that may adversely affect demand. At the same time, 350 Park Avenue represents a binary decision point: Citadel in December 2025 exercised an option to anchor a new 1,850,000 square foot tower, giving the Vornado/Rudin JV until July 2026 to take a 23%–40% ownership stake or receive a $900 million put payment — which could either add a major new office asset or generate significant liquidity.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Office
From Vornado Realty Trust's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Vornado Realty Trust
Latest news
- NEWS This Vornado Realty Trust Analyst Turns Bearish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Wednesday — benzinga Jul 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Downgrades Vornado Realty Trust to Underweight, Maintains Price Target to $32 — benzinga Jul 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Scotiabank Maintains Sector Perform on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $40 — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Piper Sandler Maintains Neutral on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $42 — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on Vornado Realty Trust, Raises Price Target to $34 — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T06:22:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertyoffice78%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 78% of our net operating income ("NOI" a non-GAAP measure) is from our office properties'
- HIGHGeographicNew York metropolitan area88%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 88% of our NOI is from properties located in the New York metropolitan area'
- LOWPropertyManhattan retail16%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 16% of our NOI is from Manhattan retail properties'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $37.14. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.42 (-14.9% upside). Prior stop was $37.14. Stop-loss: $37.14.
Concentration risk — Property Type: office (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Vornado Realty Trust trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 158.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover VNO with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $39.
What does Vornado Realty Trust do?Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million...
Vornado Realty Trust owns 51 Manhattan operating properties with 19.2 million square feet of office space, 2.3 million square feet of street retail, and 1,331 residential units, plus THE MART (3.7M sq ft) in Chicago and a 70% interest in 555 California Street (1.8M sq ft) in San Francisco. Revenue comes from leasing to office and retail tenants, with approximately 88% of 2025 NOI from the New York metropolitan area.