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Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Office

Sell if holding. At $30.32, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (78.0%).

Vornado Realty Trust is a REIT concentrated in New York City, owning 51 Manhattan operating properties (19.2M sqft office, 2.3M sqft street retail), THE MART in Chicago, and 555 California Street in San Francisco. Approximately 88% of 2025 NOI derives from the New York... Read more

$30.32+5.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#7 of 14 REIT - Office
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield19.48%
IncomeYield2.44%(5y avg 4.46%)Payout20.27%
Stop $28.28Target $31.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$32.62+7.6%13 analysts
$31.90our TP
$30.32price
$32.62mean
$25
$44

Sell if holding. At $30.32, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (78.0%). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vornado Realty Trust

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Margin of safety: 42%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%)
Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (78.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)121.3
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn42.9%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth-2.2%
Beta1.54
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C4.29bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNew York metropolitan area88%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 88% of our NOI is from properties located in the New York metropolitan area'
  • HIGHPropertyoffice properties78%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 78% of our net operating income ("NOI" a non-GAAP measure) is from our office properties'
  • LOWPropertyManhattan retail properties16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 16% of our NOI is from Manhattan retail properties'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -2.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.28Resistance $32.55

Price Targets

$28
$32
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $30.32, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (78.0%). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $28.28. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the VNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.90 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $28.28. Stop-loss: $28.28.

What are the risks of investing in VNO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: New York metropolitan area (88.0%); Concentration risk — Property Type: office properties (78.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is VNO overvalued or undervalued?

Vornado Realty Trust trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 121.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VNO?

18 analysts cover VNO with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Vornado Realty Trust do?Vornado Realty Trust is a REIT concentrated in New York City, owning 51 Manhattan operating properties (19.2M sqft...

Vornado Realty Trust is a REIT concentrated in New York City, owning 51 Manhattan operating properties (19.2M sqft office, 2.3M sqft street retail), THE MART in Chicago, and 555 California Street in San Francisco. Approximately 88% of 2025 NOI derives from the New York metropolitan area; office properties account for ~78% of NOI. No tenant exceeded 10% of revenues in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

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