COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Office
Sell if holding. At $31.18, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from top-3 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: USG (U.S. Government) (35.4%).
COPT Defense Properties is a self-managed REIT owning 201 operating properties (23.2M sq ft) near US Government defense installations, comprising the Defense/IT Portfolio. The USG and its defense contractors are the primary tenants; the USG alone accounts for 35.4% of annualized... Read more
Sell if holding. At $31.18, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from top-3 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: USG (U.S. Government) (35.4%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and reit tenant cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHTenantUSG (U.S. Government)35%10-K Item 1A: 'the USG, our largest tenant, accounted for 35.4%'
- HIGHTenanttop-3 tenants51%10-K Item 1A: 'the three largest of these tenants accounted for 51.1%'
- HIGHPropertyDefense/IT Portfolio90%10-K Item 1A: '90.3% of our ARR was from our Defense/IT Portfolio'
- HIGHGeographicMid-Atlantic / Greater Washington, DC/Baltimore10-K Item 1A: 'Most of our properties are located in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, particularly in the Greater Washington, DC/Baltimore region'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-04Item 5.02LOWCOPT Defense entered 2026 Letter Agreements with CEO Stephen E. Budorick, COO Britt A. Snider, and CFO Anthony Mifsud, updating their participation terms in the Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan for five-year periods. Routine compensatory arrangements.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $31.18, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from top-3 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: USG (U.S. Government) (35.4%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $29.91. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.62 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $29.91. Stop-loss: $29.91.
REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from top-3 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: USG (U.S. Government) (35.4%); Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%).
COPT Defense Properties trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover CDP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.
What does COPT Defense Properties do?COPT Defense Properties is a self-managed REIT owning 201 operating properties (23.2M sq ft) near US Government defense...
COPT Defense Properties is a self-managed REIT owning 201 operating properties (23.2M sq ft) near US Government defense installations, comprising the Defense/IT Portfolio. The USG and its defense contractors are the primary tenants; the USG alone accounts for 35.4% of annualized rental revenue, with the top 10 tenants comprising 64.4% of ARR.