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COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Office

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 64% of NOI from top-10 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%).

COPT Defense Properties is a fully-integrated REIT owning 207 properties (25.2M sq ft) proximate to US government defense installations. The Defense/IT Portfolio (201 properties, 90.3% of ARR) serves the USG and defense contractors with mission-critical office space and data... Read more

$31.90+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#1 of 14 REIT - Office
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.78%
IncomeYield3.93%(5y avg 4.25%)Payout90.15%
Stop $30.84Target $32.62(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$35.63+11.7%8 analysts
$32.62our TP
$31.90price
$35.63mean
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 64% of NOI from top-10 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and reit tenant cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — COPT Defense Properties

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
REIT tenant concentration cliff: 64% of NOI from top-10 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.
Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%)
Concentration risk — Tenant: top-10 tenants (64.4%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.2
P/E (Fwd)22.7
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.82
Dividend3.93%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.75bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenanttop-3 tenants51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the three largest of these tenants accounted for 51.1%, and the USG, our largest tenant, accounted for 35.4%'
  • MEDIUMTenantUSG35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the USG, our largest tenant, accounted for 35.4%' of total ARR as of December 31, 2025
  • HIGHTenanttop-10 tenants64%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our 10 largest tenants accounted for 64.4% of our total ARR'
  • MEDIUMTenantFortune 100 cloud computing customer11%
    10-K Item 1: '33 data center shells in Northern Virginia totaling 6.3 million square feet that we developed for a Fortune 100 Company cloud computing customer, whose total leased space from us accounted for 11.3% of our ARR as of December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHProductDefense/IT Portfolio90%
    10-K Item 1: 'our Defense/IT Portfolio included:...201 operating properties totaling 23.2 million square feet...As of December 31, 2025: our Defense/IT Portfolio segment...representing 90.3% of our annualized rental revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEREIT TENANT CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.46Resistance $33.29

Price Targets

$31
$33
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 64% of NOI from top-10 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $32.62 (+2.3%), stop $30.84 (−3.4%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the CDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.62 (+2.3% upside). Target $32.62 (+2.3%), stop $30.84 (−3.4%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $30.84.

What are the risks of investing in CDP?

REIT tenant concentration cliff: 64% of NOI from top-10 tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Tenant: top-3 tenants (51.1%); Concentration risk — Tenant: top-10 tenants (64.4%).

Is CDP overvalued or undervalued?

COPT Defense Properties trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CDP?

12 analysts cover CDP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.

What does COPT Defense Properties do?COPT Defense Properties is a fully-integrated REIT owning 207 properties (25.2M sq ft) proximate to US government...

COPT Defense Properties is a fully-integrated REIT owning 207 properties (25.2M sq ft) proximate to US government defense installations. The Defense/IT Portfolio (201 properties, 90.3% of ARR) serves the USG and defense contractors with mission-critical office space and data center shells. Tenants include the USG (35.4% of ARR), defense contractors, and a Fortune 100 cloud computing company (11.3% of ARR).

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