Value
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 6.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
VNO · Why this verdict
Why Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Office properties represent 78% of the portfolio and 88% of exposure is in the New York metropolitan area, creating dual concentration risk at a time when structural office demand is under pressure from remote work trends and rising vacancy rates. Bear case | Office properties fall below 70% of the total portfolio within 24 months through asset sales or diversification, reducing the concentration risk. | →Stable |
| CounterNew York office has premium pricing power and Vornado's trophy assets in Manhattan attract tenants that are returning to office at higher rates than secondary markets. | ||
Free cash flow at 152% of net income demonstrates excellent cash conversion — the business is generating substantially more cash than reported earnings suggest — with operating margins of 43% reflecting the high-quality nature of the Manhattan office and retail portfolio. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 2 annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion in a real estate investment trust can reflect low capital expenditures that defer necessary building maintenance, ultimately impairing asset quality and tenant retention. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters beat estimates, including a 500% positive surprise in November 2025 and a 26% beat in May 2026, demonstrating that actual results have repeatedly exceeded lowered consensus expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate investment trust earnings beats often involve non-recurring asset sale gains or accounting adjustments rather than sustainable operational improvement; the February 2026 quarter was a significant miss. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 4.35, combined with an RSI of 82 indicating an overbought condition and the stock trading well above its maximum pain level of $20, suggests the market is pricing in excessive optimism while options participants hedge heavily against a reversal. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, and RSI normalizes below 65. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought readings in recovering real estate investment trusts can persist for extended periods; a 4.35 put-to-call ratio may reflect covered call writing by long holders rather than outright bearish positioning. | ||
Office properties represent 78% of the portfolio and 88% of exposure is in the New York metropolitan area, creating dual concentration risk at a time when structural office demand is under pressure from remote work trends and rising vacancy rates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Office properties fall below 70% of the total portfolio within 24 months through asset sales or diversification, reducing the concentration risk.
CounterNew York office has premium pricing power and Vornado's trophy assets in Manhattan attract tenants that are returning to office at higher rates than secondary markets.
Free cash flow at 152% of net income demonstrates excellent cash conversion — the business is generating substantially more cash than reported earnings suggest — with operating margins of 43% reflecting the high-quality nature of the Manhattan office and retail portfolio.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 2 annual reporting periods.
CounterHigh cash conversion in a real estate investment trust can reflect low capital expenditures that defer necessary building maintenance, ultimately impairing asset quality and tenant retention.
Three of the four most recent quarters beat estimates, including a 500% positive surprise in November 2025 and a 26% beat in May 2026, demonstrating that actual results have repeatedly exceeded lowered consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
CounterReal estate investment trust earnings beats often involve non-recurring asset sale gains or accounting adjustments rather than sustainable operational improvement; the February 2026 quarter was a significant miss.
A put-to-call ratio of 4.35, combined with an RSI of 82 indicating an overbought condition and the stock trading well above its maximum pain level of $20, suggests the market is pricing in excessive optimism while options participants hedge heavily against a reversal.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, and RSI normalizes below 65.
CounterOverbought readings in recovering real estate investment trusts can persist for extended periods; a 4.35 put-to-call ratio may reflect covered call writing by long holders rather than outright bearish positioning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vornado Realty Trust has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades at 6.3x price-to-operating cash flow with a 30% margin of safety, but its portfolio is 78% office properties concentrated 88% in New York, the price is well above its analyst target, and a put-to-call ratio of 4.35 signals heavy bearish hedging.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 152% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.4 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 6.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,815,016 (0.058% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.23
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 182.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.50
Upside
-22.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.53>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.50 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.5, Catalyst at 6.1, and Quality at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 3.7, and Value at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Office Geographic Double Concentration
Trip ifOffice lease renewal rate falls below 80% in any reported quarter, indicating meaningful tenant departure accelerating the vacancy risk.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income in any annual reporting period, signaling deterioration in cash conversion quality.
- P3Recent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Overbought Signal
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0, indicating further escalation of bearish options positioning beyond the current 4.35.