Valley National Bancorp has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16, and strong revenue growth of 24%, but heavy commercial real estate loan concentration at 58% of the portfolio and a stock trading above its analyst price target limit the near-term risk-reward.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Real Estate Concentration↑Improving
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Revenue And Earnings Growth Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. At December 31, 2025, the company held $64.1 billion in total assets, $49.6... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Valley National Bancorp
About Valley National Bancorp
Valley National Bancorp held $64.1 billion in total assets, $52.2 billion in total deposits, and $7.8 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025. The bank's 230 branch network spans New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois; Valley National Bank, chartered as a national banking association, is subject to OCC regulation. Commercial Banking and Consumer Banking form the two reporting segments, with net loans of $49.6 billion at year-end.
Valley earns primarily through net interest income on a loan portfolio heavily weighted toward commercial real estate: at December 31, 2025, CRE and construction loans totaled $29.2 billion, representing 58.3% of the total loan portfolio, while commercial and industrial loans accounted for 21.9%, residential mortgages 11.6%, and consumer loans 8.2%. Within CRE, non-owner-occupied properties totaled 23.1% of total loans, multifamily 17.1%, and owner-occupied 13.2%. The three largest state loan exposures were New York at 30%, Florida at 27%, and New Jersey at 22% of total loans. Non-interest income includes interest rate swap fees — $21.1 million or 8% of total non-interest income in 2025 — alongside wealth management, insurance, and brokerage revenue from the Wealth Management and Insurance Services Division. The company reduced wholesale funding reliance and its CRE concentration ratio, which declined from 362% at year-end 2024 to 333% at year-end 2025.
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The CRE portfolio attracts particular regulatory scrutiny: the 10-K states that concentrations in commercial real estate are closely monitored by regulatory agencies and subject to especially heightened scrutiny. Office building loans totaled approximately $3.0 billion at December 31, 2025, with a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 63% and debt service coverage ratio of 1.91x, dispersed across Florida, Alabama, New Jersey, and New York. The filing flags that declines in commercial real estate prices in the New Jersey, New York, and Florida markets could result in increases in delinquencies and losses; the company targets a CRE concentration ratio of approximately 300% by December 31, 2027.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Valley National Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Valley National Bancorp
Latest news
- NEWS Top Valley National Bancorp Executive Makes Major Move With Insider Stock Sale - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Valley National Bank (VLY) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Valley National Bank (VLY) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Valley National Bank (VLY) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Valley National (NASDAQ:VLY) Gains Fresh Momentum - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media positive
Generated 2026-08-15T11:22:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans58%10-K Item 1A: 'total commercial real estate loans, including construction loans, represented 58.3 percent of our loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMGeographicNew Jersey, New York City, and Florida10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of Valley's lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.06 (+1.3%), stop $14.49 (−2.6%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $15.06 (+0.3% upside). Target $15.06 (+1.3%), stop $14.49 (−2.6%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $14.49.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).
Valley National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts cover VLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Valley National Bancorp do?Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois,...
Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. At December 31, 2025, the company held $64.1 billion in total assets, $49.6 billion in net loans, and $52.2 billion in deposits. It is the largest commercial bank headquartered in New Jersey, ranking 1st in the NY–NJ–Long Island market among institutions below $1 trillion in assets.