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Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $12.32. At $13.57 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $12.32 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida.

Valley National Bancorp is a $64.1B-asset bank holding company headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey, operating 230 branches in NJ, NY, FL, AL, CA, and IL. It offers commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management; commercial real estate loans represent... Read more

$13.57+10.5% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#2 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $12.32(support + ATR)Stop $11.77Target $13.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$15.64+15.3%14 analysts
$13.61our TP
$13.57price
$15.64mean
$17

Wait for pullback to $12.32. At $13.57 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $12.32 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.2Qual5.2Grw9.2Mom6.2Sent7.5Ins5.0Peer5.6Tech4.9Risk4.96.7OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.83)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: commercial real estate loans (58.3%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn33.8%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth23.8%
Beta1.05
Dividend3.31%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.77bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$9-33.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertycommercial real estate loans58%
    10-K Item 1A: 'total commercial real estate loans, including construction loans, represented 58.3 percent of our loan portfolio'
  • HIGHGeographicNew Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of Valley's lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-28Item 5.02LOW
    Carlos Vazquez appointed as director of Valley National Bancorp on January 27, 2026, to serve until next annual shareholder meeting. Independent director added to Audit and Compensation Committees. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.13Resistance $14.12

Price Targets

$12
$12
$14
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $12.32. At $13.57 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $12.32 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $13.61 (+0.3%), stop $11.77 (−15.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.61 (+10.5% upside). Target $13.61 (+0.3%), stop $11.77 (−15.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $11.77.

What are the risks of investing in VLY?

Concentration risk — Property Type: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York metropolitan area and Florida; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is VLY overvalued or undervalued?

Valley National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VLY?

18 analysts cover VLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Valley National Bancorp do?Valley National Bancorp is a $64.1B-asset bank holding company headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey, operating 230...

Valley National Bancorp is a $64.1B-asset bank holding company headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey, operating 230 branches in NJ, NY, FL, AL, CA, and IL. It offers commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management; commercial real estate loans represent 58.3% of its loan portfolio.

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