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Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York, and Florida.

Valley National Bancorp is a New Jersey-headquartered bank holding company with $64.1B in assets, 230 branches in NJ, NY, FL, AL, CA, and IL, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, and insurance. Total net loans were $49.6B at December 31, 2025, with... Read more

$12.93+5.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#11 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield3.37%(5y avg 4.30%)Payout39.64%sustainable
Stop $12.39Target $13.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$15.71+21.5%14 analysts
$13.67our TP
$12.93price
$15.71mean
$17

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York, and Florida. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.4Qual5.1Grw9.2Mom3.8Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer5.6Tech8.8Risk5.36.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Valley National Bancorp

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York, and Florida
Thin upside margin: 5.8%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn33.8%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth23.8%
Beta1.06
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.92bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans58%
    10-K Item 1A: 'total commercial real estate loans, including construction loans, represented 58.3 percent of our loan portfolio'
  • HIGHGeographicNew Jersey, New York, and Florida
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of Valley's lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida. As a result of this geographic concentration, a significant broad-based deterioration in economic conditions in these areas could have a material adverse impact'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
2.1
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.77Resistance $14.12

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York, and Florida. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $13.67 (+5.7%), stop $12.39 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.67 (+5.8% upside). Target $13.67 (+5.7%), stop $12.39 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $12.39.

What are the risks of investing in VLY?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey, New York, and Florida; Thin upside margin: 5.8%.

Is VLY overvalued or undervalued?

Valley National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VLY?

19 analysts cover VLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Valley National Bancorp do?Valley National Bancorp is a New Jersey-headquartered bank holding company with $64.1B in assets, 230 branches in NJ,...

Valley National Bancorp is a New Jersey-headquartered bank holding company with $64.1B in assets, 230 branches in NJ, NY, FL, AL, CA, and IL, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, and insurance. Total net loans were $49.6B at December 31, 2025, with 58.3% concentrated in commercial real estate and construction loans.

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