Valley National Bancorp has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16, and strong revenue growth of 24%, but heavy commercial real estate loan concentration at 58% of the portfolio and a stock trading above its analyst price target limit the near-term risk-reward.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Real Estate Concentration↑Improving
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Revenue And Earnings Growth Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $13.37. At $14.49 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.37 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. At December 31, 2025, the company held $64.1 billion in total assets, $49.6... Read more
Wait for pullback to $13.37. At $14.49 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.37 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Valley National Bancorp
About Valley National Bancorp
Valley National Bancorp held $64.1 billion in total assets, $52.2 billion in total deposits, and $7.8 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025. The bank's 230 branch network spans New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois; Valley National Bank, chartered as a national banking association, is subject to OCC regulation. Commercial Banking and Consumer Banking form the two reporting segments, with net loans of $49.6 billion at year-end.
Valley earns primarily through net interest income on a loan portfolio heavily weighted toward commercial real estate: at December 31, 2025, CRE and construction loans totaled $29.2 billion, representing 58.3% of the total loan portfolio, while commercial and industrial loans accounted for 21.9%, residential mortgages 11.6%, and consumer loans 8.2%. Within CRE, non-owner-occupied properties totaled 23.1% of total loans, multifamily 17.1%, and owner-occupied 13.2%. The three largest state loan exposures were New York at 30%, Florida at 27%, and New Jersey at 22% of total loans. Non-interest income includes interest rate swap fees — $21.1 million or 8% of total non-interest income in 2025 — alongside wealth management, insurance, and brokerage revenue from the Wealth Management and Insurance Services Division. The company reduced wholesale funding reliance and its CRE concentration ratio, which declined from 362% at year-end 2024 to 333% at year-end 2025.
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The CRE portfolio attracts particular regulatory scrutiny: the 10-K states that concentrations in commercial real estate are closely monitored by regulatory agencies and subject to especially heightened scrutiny. Office building loans totaled approximately $3.0 billion at December 31, 2025, with a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 63% and debt service coverage ratio of 1.91x, dispersed across Florida, Alabama, New Jersey, and New York. The filing flags that declines in commercial real estate prices in the New Jersey, New York, and Florida markets could result in increases in delinquencies and losses; the company targets a CRE concentration ratio of approximately 300% by December 31, 2027.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Valley National Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Valley National Bancorp
Latest news
- NEWS Valley National (VLY) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ:VLY) Stock Has Average Target Price of $16.71 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ:VLY) Shareholders to Get $0.11 Quarterly Dividend - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valley National Bank (VLY) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Valley National Bank (VLY) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans58%10-K Item 1A: 'total commercial real estate loans, including construction loans, represented 58.3 percent of our loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMGeographicNew Jersey, New York City, and Florida10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of Valley's lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $13.37. At $14.49 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.37 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $14.82 (+2.3%), stop $12.65 (−14.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.82 (+2.3% upside). Target $14.82 (+2.3%), stop $12.65 (−14.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $12.65.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (58.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away).
Valley National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
18 analysts rate VLY, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $17.
What does Valley National Bancorp do?Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois,...
Valley National Bancorp operates 230 branches across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois, offering commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. At December 31, 2025, the company held $64.1 billion in total assets, $49.6 billion in net loans, and $52.2 billion in deposits. It is the largest commercial bank headquartered in New Jersey, ranking 1st in the NY–NJ–Long Island market among institutions below $1 trillion in assets.