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VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.Sell6.7·$9.47-0.21%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vinci Compass presents a statistically cheap, high-quality asset manager selling at a fraction of its growth-adjusted multiple, but a 3-of-4-quarter earnings miss streak keeps the position a hold rather than an add until the miss streak breaks.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Compounding QualityStable
  • Cheap Valuation Vs GrowthImproving
  • Earnings Miss Streak RiskImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. (VINP) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. operates as an asset management firm in Brazil. It operates through six segments: Global Investment Products and Solutions (IP&S), Credit, Private Equity, Equities, Real Assets, and Corporate Advisory. The Global IP&S segment provides access to a... Read more

$9.47+30.8% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#15 of 235 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield23.65%
IncomeYield6.38%(5y avg 6.32%)Payout84.15%at-risk
Stop $8.95Target $12.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst target$14.24+50.3%6 analysts
$12.39our TP
$9.47price
$14.24mean
$16

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-14

Recent Developments — Vinci Compass Investments Ltd.

Generated 2026-08-14T15:42:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$623M
EV/EBITDA2.6
Profit Mgn26.0%
ROE13.7%
Rev Growth17.1%
Beta0.27
Dividend6.38%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
3.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.23%=MODERATEA.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.22Resistance $10.21

Price Targets

$9
$12
A.Upside+30.8%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VINP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.95. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VINP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.39 (+30.8% upside). Prior stop was $8.95. Stop-loss: $8.95.

What are the risks of investing in VINP?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is VINP overvalued or undervalued?

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VINP?

12 analysts cover VINP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. do?Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. operates as an asset management firm in Brazil. It operates through six segments: Global...

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. operates as an asset management firm in Brazil. It operates through six segments: Global Investment Products and Solutions (IP&S), Credit, Private Equity, Equities, Real Assets, and Corporate Advisory. The Global IP&S segment provides access to a network of general partners and asset managers. This segment also offers proprietary investment solutions; multi-asset allocation strategies, as well as portfolio and management services; and liquid and alternative, separate mandates, commingled funds, brokerage, pension plans, solutions, and Vinci retirement services. The Credit segment operates public and private credit, opportunistic capital solutions, and agribusiness credit businesses. The Private Equity segment focuses on control and co-control investments, and minority investments in small-to-medium enterprises. The Equities segment delivers investment solutions; and sub-strategies to address different investor profiles and market conditions, including long only, dividends, small caps, long biased, and other specialized approaches. The Real Assets segment comprises investments focused on tangible, income-generating assets through real estate, infrastructure, and forestry. The Corporate Advisory segment provides financial and strategic advisory services, focusing on IPO advisory and mergers and acquisition transactions to entrepreneurs, corporate senior management teams, and boards of directors. Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. was formerly known as Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. and changed its name to Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. in July 2025. Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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