Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸Attractively valued
VINP · Why this verdict
Why Vinci Compass Investments (VINP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vinci Compass is a high-quality, cheaply valued asset manager with a 7.5% dividend yield and 28.6% analyst upside, but 3 earnings misses in the last 4 quarters, heavy insider selling and a steep downtrend keep conviction low.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 23% with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9, making it a compounder of returns and growth. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 65% of net income, an earnings quality warning, and asset manager fees depend on market levels. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, averaging a -15.2% surprise, including $0.70 against $1.08 in the quarter reported 2026-08-11. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters after earnings on 2026-11-12. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe company has missed in most quarters for two years, so analyst estimates may be structurally too high rather than results being temporarily weak. | ||
The $11.31 analyst target implies 28.6% upside from $8.80, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25 against 12.7% downside and a forward P/E of 7.5x. Analyst target | The price moves toward the analyst target as earnings stabilize over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries little weight, and repeated misses mean the target may be cut. | ||
Insiders sold about $2.49M of stock across 24 transactions in 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.431% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling slows and net selling stays below $500K per 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterSales across 24 transactions may reflect scheduled selling plans and not a view on the business. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -3.1% per 30 days and an RSI of 17, a capitulation-style decline with momentum at 1.0/10. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score recovers toward the 4.5 level over the next 12 months as selling pressure fades. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 17 is deeply oversold, and the large drop may already price in the earnings misses. | ||
Margins are strong at 23% with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9, making it a compounder of returns and growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 65% of net income, an earnings quality warning, and asset manager fees depend on market levels.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, averaging a -15.2% surprise, including $0.70 against $1.08 in the quarter reported 2026-08-11.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters after earnings on 2026-11-12.
CounterThe company has missed in most quarters for two years, so analyst estimates may be structurally too high rather than results being temporarily weak.
The $11.31 analyst target implies 28.6% upside from $8.80, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25 against 12.7% downside and a forward P/E of 7.5x.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- The price moves toward the analyst target as earnings stabilize over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries little weight, and repeated misses mean the target may be cut.
Insiders sold about $2.49M of stock across 24 transactions in 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.431% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows and net selling stays below $500K per 90 days.
CounterSales across 24 transactions may reflect scheduled selling plans and not a view on the business.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -3.1% per 30 days and an RSI of 17, a capitulation-style decline with momentum at 1.0/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score recovers toward the 4.5 level over the next 12 months as selling pressure fades.
CounterAn RSI of 17 is deeply oversold, and the large drop may already price in the earnings misses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 65% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,491,035 (0.435% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 166%
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 9 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 7.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- INSIDER:0.43%=HEAVY
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:9d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.34
Upside
+29.9%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Momentum at 1.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Sentiment at 7.5, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Growth at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% from the current 23%.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $9.50 from the current $11.31.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider net selling stays below $500,000 over 90 days.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 1.0.