Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.75: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality.
Upstart is an AI lending marketplace facilitating personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs through 100+ bank and credit union lending partners and institutional investors, with 91% of 2025 loans fully automated. Revenue comes from platform and referral fees; top 3 lending partners... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.75: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Upstart Holdings Has The 'The Right Tonic To Get The Stock Back On Track' — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Needham Reiterates Buy on Upstart Holdings, Maintains $37 Price Target — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Upstart Holdings Form 4 Indicates Director Dave Girouard Bought 170,240 Shares At Prices Ranging From $29.37 To $29.76 P — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Upstart Stock Is Trading Flat Following Revenue Beat, EPS Miss — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Upstart Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $46 — benzinga May 6, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop three lending partners61%10-K Item 1: 'revenue from fees received from these lending partners accounted for 61% of our total revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUMOn Feb 10, 2026, Paul Gu (Co-founder, current CTO) was appointed CEO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Dave Girouard who will become Executive Chairman. Sanjay Datta was simultaneously appointed President and Chief Capital Officer effective immediately.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 7.1% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.75: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $30.45. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.12 (+10.3% upside). Prior stop was $30.45. Stop-loss: $30.45.
Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).
Upstart Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 74.4 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover UPST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $40.
What does Upstart Holdings, Inc. do?Upstart is an AI lending marketplace facilitating personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs through 100+ bank and credit...
Upstart is an AI lending marketplace facilitating personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs through 100+ bank and credit union lending partners and institutional investors, with 91% of 2025 loans fully automated. Revenue comes from platform and referral fees; top 3 lending partners collectively originated 83% of marketplace loans and contributed 61% of total revenue in 2025.