Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the UPST stock price target?

Take-profit $39.54 (+28.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.71.

Q: What are the risks of investing in UPST?

Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).

Q: Is UPST overvalued or undervalued?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.7 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about UPST?

21 analysts cover UPST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Credit Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Upstart is an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union lending partners for personal loans, auto loans, and HELOCs, with 91% of loans fully automated in 2025. Revenue consists primarily of platform and referral fees from lending partners and... Read more

$30.98+28.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#16 of 28 Credit Services

Stop $28.71Target $39.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$43.93+41.8%15 analysts

$39.54our TP

$30.98price

$43.93mean

$20

$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.98: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%)

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.7

P/E (Fwd)9.6

Mkt Cap$2.9B

EV/EBITDA42.7

Profit Mgn5.0%

ROE7.5%

Rev Growth34.4%

Beta2.16

DividendNone

Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral

IV115%elevated

Max Pain$17-45.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomertop three lending partners61%
10-K Item 1: 'our top three lending partners collectively originated 83% of the loans facilitated through our marketplace and revenue from fees received from these lending partners accounted for 61% of our total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
Dave Girouard transitioning to Executive Chairman; Paul Gu (Co-founder, CTO) appointed CEO effective May 1, 2026. Sanjay Datta appointed President and Chief Capital Officer effective immediately. Clean internal succession; no disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.015%1.05

Quality4.015%0.60

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum2.710%0.27

Sentiment7.510%0.75

Insider Activity5.310%0.53

Peer Rank4.110%0.41

Technical Setup3.15%0.16

Risk Profile2.75%0.14

Catalyst7.95%0.40

Overall (Σ contributions)5.79

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

2.3

Rsi

4.0

Ma Position

6.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 6.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest

0.0

Volatility

0.0

Implied Vol

0.0

Debt Equity

2.6

Beta

2.8

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Days To Cover

4.4

Put Call

8.5

High short interest: 33%High IV: 115%Above max pain $17Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Support Resistance

4.3

Bollinger

4.9

GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

60 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.30Resistance $35.80

Price Targets

$29

$40

A.Upside+27.6%

A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2)

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is UPST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.98: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $28.71. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UPST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.54 (+28.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.71. Stop-loss: $28.71.

What are the risks of investing in UPST?

Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).

Is UPST overvalued or undervalued?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.7 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPST?

21 analysts cover UPST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Upstart Holdings, Inc. do?Upstart is an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union lending partners for personal...