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ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.Sell4.7·$7.60-1.68%
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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.60: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Below-average business quality.

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31,... Read more

$7.60+8.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 16 Airlines
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-14.07%
Stop $7.05Target $8.23(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$6.17-18.9%9 analysts
$8.23our TP
$7.60price
$6.17mean
$4
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.60: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05

Recent Developments — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-05T09:50:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-29.2% upside)
Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)31.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-10.7
Profit Mgn-9.6%
ROE-92.4%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta2.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV95%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
3.6
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 6.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Beta
1.5
Days To Cover
5.4
News Risk
5.5
High short interest justified: 41%Elevated put/call: 4.00High IV: 95%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.31Resistance $8.40

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-29.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ULCC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.60: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 41%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.05. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ULCC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.23 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $7.05. Stop-loss: $7.05.

What are the risks of investing in ULCC?

Target reached (-29.2% upside); Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0).

Is ULCC overvalued or undervalued?

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ULCC?

17 analysts cover ULCC with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. do?Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States...

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Related stocks: LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A.) · CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) · RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) · ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company)
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