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UDRUDR, Inc.Sell5.7·$39.40+0.74%
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UDR, Inc. (UDR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.40 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa) (74.5%).

UDR is a self-administered multifamily REIT with 165 apartment communities totaling 55,240 completed homes across 21 U.S. markets as of December 31, 2025, held directly or through joint ventures. Revenue comes from residential rents; the top 8 markets (Metropolitan D.C. 15.7%,... Read more

$39.40-1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 16 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.90%
IncomeYield4.39%(5y avg 3.85%)Payout117.01%
Stop $37.90Target $38.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$40.55+2.9%21 analysts
$38.93our TP
$39.40price
$40.55mean
$36
$44

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.40 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa) (74.5%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: top-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa) (74.5%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.8
P/E (Fwd)70.4
Mkt Cap$14.6B
EV/EBITDA18.7
Profit Mgn27.8%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.71
Dividend4.39%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographictop-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa)75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 74.5% of our total NOI was generated from communities located in Metropolitan D.C. (15.7%), Boston, MA (11.7%), Orange County, CA (10.9%), the San Francisco Bay Area, CA (8.9%), Dallas, TX (8.0%), New York, NY (7.1%), Seattle, WA (6.5%) and Tampa, FL (5.7%)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.3
52w Position
9.2
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.41Resistance $39.72

Price Targets

$38
$39
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.40 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa) (74.5%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $37.90. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.93 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $37.90. Stop-loss: $37.90.

What are the risks of investing in UDR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: top-8 markets (D.C., Boston, OC, SF Bay, Dallas, NY, Seattle, Tampa) (74.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is UDR overvalued or undervalued?

UDR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.8 (forward 70.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UDR?

28 analysts cover UDR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does UDR, Inc. do?UDR is a self-administered multifamily REIT with 165 apartment communities totaling 55,240 completed homes across 21...

UDR is a self-administered multifamily REIT with 165 apartment communities totaling 55,240 completed homes across 21 U.S. markets as of December 31, 2025, held directly or through joint ventures. Revenue comes from residential rents; the top 8 markets (Metropolitan D.C. 15.7%, Boston MA 11.7%, Orange County CA 10.9%, San Francisco Bay Area CA 8.9%, Dallas TX 8.0%, New York NY 7.1%, Seattle WA 6.5%, Tampa FL 5.7%) generated approximately 74.5% of total 2025 NOI.

Related stocks: MRP (Millrose Properties, Inc.) · SUI (Sun Communities, Inc.) · AMH (American Homes 4 Rent) · AVB (AvalonBay Communities, Inc.) · MAA (Mid-America Apartment Communiti)
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