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TWOTwo Harbors Investment CorpSell5.7·$12.02-2.67%
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Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.02 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States. The company target assets include agency RMBS collateralized... Read more

$12.02-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#11 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield11.27%(5y avg 14.76%)Payout75.95%
Stop $11.85Target $11.89(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$11.63-3.3%4 analysts
$11.89our TP
$12.02price
$11.63mean
$11
$13

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.02 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05

Recent Developments — Two Harbors Investment Corp

Generated 2026-07-05T09:50:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-69.5%
ROE-17.7%
Rev Growth1569.1%
Beta1.04
Dividend11.27%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV110%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Dividend Safety
4.2
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.81Resistance $12.13

Price Targets

$12
$12
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TWO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.02 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.85. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TWO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.89 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $11.85. Stop-loss: $11.85.

What are the risks of investing in TWO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is TWO overvalued or undervalued?

Two Harbors Investment Corp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TWO?

16 analysts cover TWO with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Two Harbors Investment Corp do?Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential...

Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States. The company target assets include agency RMBS collateralized by fixed rate mortgage loans, adjustable rate mortgage loans, hybrid mortgage loans, or derivatives; and other assets, such as financial and mortgage-related assets, comprising non-agency securities and non-hedging transactions. It qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · ORC (Orchid Island Capital, Inc.) · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.)
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Benzinga3d agoMerger Acquisition