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TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.Sell5.3·$19.08-0.99%
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The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Sell if holding. At $19.08, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.

The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform through which advertising agencies and brand advertisers plan, execute, and measure digital campaigns across display, video, audio, and connected television. The company earns platform fees as a percentage... Read more

$19.08+18.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 9 Advertising Agencies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.39%
Stop $17.76Target $22.50(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$24.45+28.2%31 analysts
$22.50our TP
$19.08price
$24.45mean
$11
$38

Sell if holding. At $19.08, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — The Trade Desk, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jun 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Nate Olmstead, age 54, appointed CFO effective July 9, 2026, joining from Penguin Solutions. Replaces Tahnil Davis, acting interim CFO; Davis continues as Chief Accounting Officer.

Generated 2026-06-17T11:26:49Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE16.7%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta1.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$130+581.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertwo holding companies
    10-K Item 1: 'two holding companies would have each represented more than 10% of our gross billings for 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Nate Olmstead, age 54, appointed CFO effective July 9, 2026, joining from Penguin Solutions. Replaces Tahnil Davis, acting interim CFO; Davis continues as Chief Accounting Officer.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-29Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved Samantha Jacobson's participation in non-employee director compensation program: $50,000 annual retainer plus prorated equity grant of $290,000 from May 18, 2026, to next annual meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacobson resigned as CSO and employee effective May 18, 2026. No successor named. She continues to serve as a member of the Board of Directors.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Lise J. Buyer resigned from the Board effective April 3, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. She served as director since March 2019.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 3.01MEDIUM
    Nasdaq issued noncompliance notice March 25, 2026, after Kathryn Falberg's resignation left audit and compensation committees below minimums per Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605. Cure period extends to September 21, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Director Alexander Kayyal resigned from the Board effective March 19, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -17.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.4
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.31Resistance $23.57

Price Targets

$18
$23
A.Upside+17.9%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $19.08, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $17.76. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TTD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.50 (+18.7% upside). Prior stop was $17.76. Stop-loss: $17.76.

What are the risks of investing in TTD?

Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TTD overvalued or undervalued?

The Trade Desk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TTD?

43 analysts cover TTD with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $24.

What does The Trade Desk, Inc. do?The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform through which advertising agencies and brand...

The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform through which advertising agencies and brand advertisers plan, execute, and measure digital campaigns across display, video, audio, and connected television. The company earns platform fees as a percentage of clients' total spend; a customer retention rate exceeding 95% for over a decade reflects high platform switching costs. At the holding-company level, two agency groups would each have represented more than 10% of gross billings in 2025.

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