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The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Sell if holding. At $21.18, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth.

The Trade Desk is a global demand-side advertising technology platform serving advertising agencies, advertisers, and service providers to programmatically purchase digital ads across CTV, video, display, mobile, and audio channels. Revenue is a platform fee based on a... Read more

$21.18+12.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 9 Advertising Agencies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.72%
Stop $19.68Target $23.74(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$25.81+21.8%31 analysts
$23.74our TP
$21.18price
$25.81mean
$17
$47

Sell if holding. At $21.18, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The Trade Desk, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacobson resigned effective May 18, 2026; she will continue as Board director. No reason cited for departure as CSO. No successor named for the role.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$9.9B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE16.7%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta1.10
DividendNone
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$13-38.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo holding companies
    10-K Item 1: 'two holding companies would have each represented more than 10% of our gross billings in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Gokul Rajaram resigned from The Trade Desk Board effective April 3, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices. Had served on Board since May 2018.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Alexander Kayyal resigned from Board effective March 19, 2026. No disagreement cited. Multiple board departures in this period also caused Nasdaq committee composition noncompliance (see 3.01).
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 3.01MEDIUM
    Nasdaq issued noncompliance notice March 25, 2026: after board member departures, audit committee fell below 3 independent members and compensation committee below 2 independent members. Cure period through September 21, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOW
    Lise J. Buyer resigned from Board effective April 3, 2026. No disagreement with Company. Had served as director since March 2019.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacobson resigned effective May 18, 2026; she will continue as Board director. No reason cited for departure as CSO. No successor named for the role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.1
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -18.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 1.44%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.83Resistance $24.87

Price Targets

$20
$24
A.Upside+12.1%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Insider activity: 1.44%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $21.18, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $19.68. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TTD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.74 (+12.2% upside). Prior stop was $19.68. Stop-loss: $19.68.

What are the risks of investing in TTD?

Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TTD overvalued or undervalued?

The Trade Desk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TTD?

42 analysts cover TTD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $26.

What does The Trade Desk, Inc. do?The Trade Desk is a global demand-side advertising technology platform serving advertising agencies, advertisers, and...

The Trade Desk is a global demand-side advertising technology platform serving advertising agencies, advertisers, and service providers to programmatically purchase digital ads across CTV, video, display, mobile, and audio channels. Revenue is a platform fee based on a percentage of client advertising spend; customer retention has exceeded 95% for over a decade. Two holding companies each represented more than 10% of gross billings in 2025.

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