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The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $22.49. At $23.73 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $22.49 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform used by agencies and advertisers to buy digital ads across CTV, mobile, display, and audio formats globally. Revenue is a percentage platform fee on clients' total ad spend; two holding companies each... Read more

$23.73+24.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 9 Advertising Agencies
Entry $22.49(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $20.08Target $28.02(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$30.45+28.3%33 analysts
$28.02our TP
$23.73price
$30.45mean
$17
$55

Wait for pullback to $22.49. At $23.73 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $22.49 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.8Qual7.3Grw4.8Mom5.5Sent7.8Ins6.7Peer5.6Tech2.5Risk4.76.1OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.1
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$11.6B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV113%elevated
Max Pain$12-49.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertwo holding companies
    10-K Item 1A: 'two holding companies would have each represented more than 10% of our gross billings for 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Lise J. Buyer resigned from the Board effective April 3, 2026. Resignation not result of any disagreement with Company on any matter. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 3.01MEDIUM
    Nasdaq issued non-compliance notice on March 25, 2026 after Kathryn Falberg resignation left Audit and Compensation Committees below minimum independent director requirements. Cure period through September 21, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Director Alexander Kayyal resigned from the Board effective March 19, 2026. Resignation not result of any disagreement with Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Director Gokul Rajaram resigned from the Board effective April 3, 2026. Resignation not result of any disagreement with Company. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO vacancy: Tahnil Davis appointed interim CFO and principal financial officer effective January 24, 2026. Company intends to commence external search for permanent CFO. No permanent replacement named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.4
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 1.24%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.74Resistance $24.51

Price Targets

$20
$22
$28
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Insider activity: 1.24%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTD stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $22.49. At $23.73 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $22.49 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $28.02 (+18.1%), stop $20.08 (−18.2%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TTD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.02 (+24.0% upside). Target $28.02 (+18.1%), stop $20.08 (−18.2%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $20.08.

What are the risks of investing in TTD?

Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TTD overvalued or undervalued?

The Trade Desk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.1 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TTD?

42 analysts cover TTD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $30.

What does The Trade Desk, Inc. do?The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform used by agencies and advertisers to buy...

The Trade Desk operates a self-service programmatic advertising platform used by agencies and advertisers to buy digital ads across CTV, mobile, display, and audio formats globally. Revenue is a percentage platform fee on clients' total ad spend; two holding companies each exceeded 10% of gross billings in 2025.

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