TSM at $412.32 is a top-tier semiconductor compounder (Wide moat, 9/9 Piotroski, ROE 36%, 47% margins, 4/4 beats, 35% revenue growth) with HIGH conviction sizing — but V9 asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot fails with 2.1% upside to TP $421.06, near-52w-high (2.3% away), and elevated put/call 1.94 produce STARTER with action_note 'Wait for pullback.'
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality 8.8 with notes 'Excellent ROE: 36%', 'Strong margins: 47%', 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth', Piotroski F 9/9 — bull_case 'High-quality business' and peer_rank notes 'Best-in-class margins' confirm. Quality breakdown | ROE component stays at 10.0 and gross_margin component stays above 8.0 over next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterFCF/NI 38% RED FLAG shows AI capex is depressing cash conversion; capex super-cycle through 2027 may compress FCF/NI below 50% for an extended period. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and growth notes 'Strong growth: 35% YoY' — 4 consecutive beats with revenue accelerating into the AI demand wave. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% by the 2026-07-16 print. | →stable |
| CounterSemi capex cycle peaks with AI demand normalization; revenue growth from 35% YoY can compress to 15-20% by 2H 2026 even with beats intact. | ||
V9 asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 2.1 vs downside_pct 7.3 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $421.06 leaves $9 of upside above $412.32 spot. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $460 (11%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.5 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterSell-side targets routinely lag TSM during AI-cycle re-rating phases; the gate trip is target-anchoring lag, not a top. | ||
Quality 8.8 with notes 'Excellent ROE: 36%', 'Strong margins: 47%', 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth', Piotroski F 9/9 — bull_case 'High-quality business' and peer_rank notes 'Best-in-class margins' confirm.
→stable- Expectation
- ROE component stays at 10.0 and gross_margin component stays above 8.0 over next 2 refreshes.
CounterFCF/NI 38% RED FLAG shows AI capex is depressing cash conversion; capex super-cycle through 2027 may compress FCF/NI below 50% for an extended period.
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and growth notes 'Strong growth: 35% YoY' — 4 consecutive beats with revenue accelerating into the AI demand wave.
→stable- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% by the 2026-07-16 print.
CounterSemi capex cycle peaks with AI demand normalization; revenue growth from 35% YoY can compress to 15-20% by 2H 2026 even with beats intact.
V9 asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 2.1 vs downside_pct 7.3 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $421.06 leaves $9 of upside above $412.32 spot.
→stable- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $460 (11%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.5 within 2 refreshes.
CounterSell-side targets routinely lag TSM during AI-cycle re-rating phases; the gate trip is target-anchoring lag, not a top.
▸ Show 2 more pillars (SSR-indexed, visually truncated)▾ Show fewer
Action_note 'Fundamentals strong but target reached (2.1% upside). Wait for pullback.' with entry_target $391.55 (5% below spot, entry_method 'support_atr_sticky') — STARTER sizing tells you accumulate on weakness.
→stable- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward entry_target $391.55 within 2 refreshes restoring 7%+ upside to TP.
CounterTSM at the 52w high rarely gives 5% pullbacks during accelerating beats — waiting may mean watching the stock advance another 10-15% first.
Risk.notes 'Elevated put/call: 1.94' and 'High IV: 73%' with options.put_call_ratio 1.937 — derivatives positioning is unusually bearish for a stock with 4/4 beats and HIGH conviction sizing.
→stable- Expectation
- put_call_ratio retreats below 1.0 within 2 refreshes signaling derivatives capitulation.
CounterPut-heavy positioning often reflects long-vol hedges on concentrated AI-exposed positions, not directional shorts; the elevated put/call may be flow-driven, not sentiment.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away).
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $418.45 has reached target $421.06. No upside to wait for. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-05-30Recent Developments — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur
Latest news
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): One of the Harvard University Stock Picks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- Here’s Why Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Is One of the Best Fundamental Stocks to Invest in According to Bill — Yahoo Finance positive
- TSMC Is Doubling Down on AI With A13. Does That Make TSM Stock a Buy? - Barchart.com — Barchart.com positive
- TSM stock spikes overnight: Q1 print tops estimates on strong demand for AI chips, advanced processors - MSN — MSN positive
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Barclays Analyst Says - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-05-30T00:22:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $418.45 has reached target $421.06. No upside to wait for. Target $421.06 (+0.4%), stop $373.51 (−12.2%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $421.06 (+7.3% upside). Target $421.06 (+0.4%), stop $373.51 (−12.2%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $373.51.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away).
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 36.4 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
43 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $468.
What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.