The company delivers 35% annual revenue growth against a 47% margin structure and a wide economic moat at a PEG of 1.29, with four consecutive earnings beats reinforcing execution discipline. The 2.4-to-1 risk/reward is favorable, though weak momentum and free cash flow converting at only 38% of net income justify a small initial position pending a technical breakout.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Franchise Quality And Moat→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Conditional: analysts disagree (1.6× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Technology · Semiconductors
Buy now at $432.96. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $432.96 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $496.13 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$63 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more
Buy now at $432.96. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $432.96 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $496.13 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$63 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.82, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 8/10 self excluded). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur
Latest news
- NEWS TSM Stock Slips Premarket Today — CEO Reportedly Says AI Chip Shortage Isn’t Ending Anytime Soon - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS TSM Stock Spikes Overnight: Q1 Print Tops Estimates On Strong Demand For AI Chips, Advanced Processors - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) Stock Faces Fresh Questions Over China Tools And AI Spending - Yahoo Finan — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) Stock Faces Fresh Questions Over China Tools And AI Spending - finance.yah — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): One of the Harvard University Stock Picks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-09-13T15:31:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy now at $432.96. A.R:R 2.2:1 at $432.96 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $496.13 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$63 per share to target. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.82, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $496.13 (+14.6%), stop $413.48 (−4.7%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 7.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $496.13 (+14.5% upside). Target $496.13 (+14.6%), stop $413.48 (−4.7%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $413.48.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 31.9 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
43 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $551.
What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.