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TIGOMillicom International CellularSell5.6·$97.02+2.62%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Millicom International Cellular delivers elite financial quality — 37% return on equity, 19% net margins, 146% free-cash-flow conversion, and a Rule of 40 score of 73 — with 45% revenue growth and an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 13.7x, but forward earnings estimates are falling 30.3% in 30 days and the stock already sits 19.1% above its analyst-implied intrinsic value.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Financial Quality MetricsStable
  • Revenue Growth Vs Declining EstimatesStable
  • Price Above Intrinsic Value TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $97.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Millicom International Cellular S.A. engages in the provision cable and mobile services in Latin America. The company offers mobile services, including mobile data and voice, and short message services; and mobile financial services, such as payments, money transfers,... Read more

$97.02-21.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#17 of 45 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield11.37%
IncomeYield3.11%(5y avg 4.76%)Payout40.75%sustainable
Stop $90.80Target $98.73(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$87.80-9.5%8 analysts
$98.73our TP
$97.02price
$87.80mean
$52
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $97.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$15.8B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn19.1%
ROE37.4%
Rev Growth45.1%
Beta0.89
Dividend3.11%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$50-48.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $87.32Resistance $100.75

Price Targets

$91
$99
A.Upside-21.5%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.5% upside)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TIGO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $97.02 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $90.80. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TIGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.73 (-21.5% upside). Prior stop was $90.80. Stop-loss: $90.80.

What are the risks of investing in TIGO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

Is TIGO overvalued or undervalued?

Millicom International Cellular trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TIGO?

13 analysts cover TIGO with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Millicom International Cellular do?Millicom International Cellular S.A. engages in the provision cable and mobile services in Latin America. The company...

Millicom International Cellular S.A. engages in the provision cable and mobile services in Latin America. The company offers mobile services, including mobile data and voice, and short message services; and mobile financial services, such as payments, money transfers, international remittances, savings, real-time loans, and micro-insurance. In addition, the company provides fixed services, including broadband, fixed voice, and pay-TV; and fixed-voice and data telecommunications services, managed services, cloud and security solutions, and value-added services; and tower infrastructure and services. The company serves small, medium, and large businesses, as well as residential consumers and governmental entities. It markets its products and services under the Tigo and Tigo Business brands. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

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