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VIVTelefonica Brasil S.A.Hold5.6·$14.05+2.55%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Telefonica Brasil trades at attractive valuation multiples with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1.07 and strong financial-health indicators, but three consecutive earnings misses averaging minus 26% per quarter, combined with analyst estimates declining by 27%, point to deteriorating fundamental momentum that limits the investment case.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Support At Current PriceStable
  • Strong Financial Health PiotroskiStable
  • Earnings Miss Streak And Estimate CutsDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Telefonica Brasil S.A. (VIV) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-27). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and... Read more

$14.05-6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#21 of 45 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield6.99%(5y avg 4.81%)Payout60.31%
Entry $13.08(support + ATR)Stop $12.53Target $13.97(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$15.18+8.0%7 analysts
$13.97our TP
$14.05price
$15.18mean
$19

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $14.05 has reached target $13.97. No upside to wait for. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$22.4B
EV/EBITDA1.7
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta0.21
Dividend6.99%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV50%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 1 daysDividend: 7.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.6
Bollinger
2.2
52w Position
6.7
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.92Resistance $14.26

Price Targets

$13
$13
$14
A.Upside-6.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIV stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $14.05 has reached target $13.97. No upside to wait for. Target $13.97 (-0.6%), stop $12.53 (−12.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.97 (-6.0% upside). Target $13.97 (-0.6%), stop $12.53 (−12.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $12.53.

What are the risks of investing in VIV?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is VIV overvalued or undervalued?

Telefonica Brasil S.A. trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VIV?

19 analysts cover VIV with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Telefonica Brasil S.A. do?Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its...

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and broadband internet access through 3G, 4G, 4.5G, and 5G, as well as value-added, prepaid plans with data sharing features, family plans, voice mail, caller identification, voice minutes in unlimited bundles to mobile and fixed-line phones, and digital services, and wireless roaming services. The company also offers data services, including broadband and mobile data services; fixed-line local services consist of activation, monthly subscription, public telephones and measured services. In addition, it provides pay TV services through IPTV technologies; network services, such as rental of facilities and other services; wholesale services, including interconnection services to users of other network providers; and digital services that include entertainment, cloud, and security and financial services. Further, the company offers multimedia communication services, which include audio, data, voice and other sounds, images, texts, and other information, as well as sells devices and accessories, such as smartphones, broadband USB modems, and other devices. Additionally, it provides telecommunications solutions and IT support to various industries, such as retail, manufacturing, services, financial institutions, government, etc; insurance services; and sale of wireless devices and consumer electronics. It markets and sells its solutions through Vivo stores, dealers, retail channels, distribution and digital channels, door-to-door sales, and outbound tele sales. The company was formerly known as Telecomunicações de São Paulo S.A. - TELESP and changed its name to Telefônica Brasil S.A. in October 2011. Telefônica Brasil S.A. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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