Hanover Insurance Group has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 25.1% and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.22, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and sits 0.7% from its 52-week high with negative asymmetry and declining forward earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation With Peg Discount↓Deteriorating
- Declining Earnings Estimates↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $231.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.9% away).
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $231.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Hanover Insurance Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance: Better Margins Justify A Premium Valuation (NYSE:THG) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Earnings Beat on Personal Lines Gains, Revenues Miss - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Technology Investments Shape Outlook - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Technology Investments Shape Outlook - stockstory.org — stockstory.org positive
- NEWS Hanover Insurance Group Inc Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $218.12, Implies 3% Downside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T11:12:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicMichigan19%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicMichigan and Massachusetts personal lines50%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% of our Personal Lines net premiums written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWPatricia A. Norton-Gatto (SVP/Corporate Controller) appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective May 13, 2026. Jeffrey M. Farber (EVP/CFO) no longer serves as PAO but retains CFO role. No reason cited for the designation change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $231.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $266.43 (+15.1%), stop $223.66 (−3.5%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $266.43 (-11.2% upside). Target $266.43 (+15.1%), stop $223.66 (−3.5%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $223.66.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.9% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $237.
What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%),...
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025, with Michigan representing 18.7% of total premiums and roughly half of Personal Lines premiums concentrated in Michigan and Massachusetts.