Hanover Insurance Group has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 25.1% and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.22, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and sits 0.7% from its 52-week high with negative asymmetry and declining forward earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Attractive Valuation With Peg Discount→Stable
- Declining Earnings Estimates↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away).
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $218.11 has reached target $220.77. No upside to wait for. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Hanover Insurance Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) delivers strong Q4 2025 earnings, shares notch minor gains on positive year over year — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai positive
- NEWS Hanover (THG) Stock: Price-to-Value Assessment (Smart Money Exits) 2026-04-22 - Viral Momentum Stocks - Cổng thông tin đ — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La negative
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS A Look at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) After 3.4% Decli - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS A Look at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) After 3.4% Decline -- GF Value $202.40 vs Price $206.90 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-07-26T05:57:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicMichigan19%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicMichigan and Massachusetts personal lines50%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% of our Personal Lines net premiums written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWPatricia A. Norton-Gatto (SVP/Corporate Controller) appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective May 13, 2026. Jeffrey M. Farber (EVP/CFO) no longer serves as PAO but retains CFO role. No reason cited for the designation change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $218.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $218.11 has reached target $220.77. No upside to wait for. Target $220.77 (+1.2%), stop $197.26 (−10.6%), A.R:R -2.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $220.77 (-13.7% upside). Target $220.77 (+1.2%), stop $197.26 (−10.6%), A.R:R -2.0:1. Stop-loss: $197.26.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away).
Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $216.
What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%),...
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025, with Michigan representing 18.7% of total premiums and roughly half of Personal Lines premiums concentrated in Michigan and Massachusetts.