Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Stock Analysis

TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR-ABL1 inhibitor targeting chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), is Terns Pharmaceuticals' sole clinical program; at the recommended Phase 2 dose of ≥320mg once daily, the Phase 1/2 CARDINAL trial showed 75% major molecular response (MMR) achievement by 24 weeks as of a September 2025 data cut in a predominantly 3L+ patient population. Terns held $1.019 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at December 31, 2025, against an accumulated deficit of $517.7 million and a net loss of $96.2 million in 2025.

Terns generates no product revenue and has funded operations entirely through equity raises since its December 2016 inception. TERN-701 targets CML, an orphan indication with approximately 17,000 new frontline patients per year across G7 nations and roughly 13,000 annual treatment switchers. The market is dominated by BCR-ABL1 kinase inhibitors: imatinib, four second-generation active-site TKIs (dasatinib, nilotinib, bosutinib, ponatinib), and asciminib—the first approved allosteric TKI from Novartis—which captured 23% of new-to-brand frontline share as of September 2025 and carries Novartis expectations of over $4 billion in peak annual sales. Terns plans a pivotal Phase 3 second-line-plus trial of TERN-701 against physician's choice of dasatinib, nilotinib, or bosutinib, with initiation targeted for late 2026 or early 2027, followed within 6 to 12 months by a separate frontline Phase 3 trial. The company's legacy metabolic programs—TERN-501 for MASH and TERN-801 for obesity—are being out-licensed to strategic partners.