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Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company developing TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR-ABL1 inhibitor for CML in Phase 1/2 (CARDINAL trial). The company entered a merger agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC at $53/share in March 2026; the merger closed May 5,... Read more

$52.97-1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#133 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.91%
Stop $52.81Target $51.92(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$53.00+0.1%4 analysts
Range unavailable (4 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 5, 2026 HIGH Item 5.01: Merger with Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC completed May 5, 2026. Merger Sub merged with and into Terns; Terns surviving as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Merck. Shares delisted from Nasdaq.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: TERN-701
Target reached (-14.9% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-34.0
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA-46.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-14.2%
Rev Growth
Beta-0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV32%normal
Max Pain$60+13.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineTERN-701
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business currently depends heavily on the successful development, marketing approval and commercialization of TERN-701'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.01HIGH
    Merger with Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC completed May 5, 2026. Merger Sub merged with and into Terns; Terns surviving as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Merck. Shares delisted from Nasdaq.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $52.42Resistance $52.98

Price Targets

$53
$52
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (31 sells, 0.14% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TERN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $52.81. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TERN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.92 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $52.81. Stop-loss: $52.81.

What are the risks of investing in TERN?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: TERN-701; Target reached (-14.9% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is TERN overvalued or undervalued?

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -34.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TERN?

17 analysts cover TERN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company developing TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR-ABL1 inhibitor...

Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company developing TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR-ABL1 inhibitor for CML in Phase 1/2 (CARDINAL trial). The company entered a merger agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC at $53/share in March 2026; the merger closed May 5, 2026.

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