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Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.88; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company with one lead program, TERN-701, for chronic myeloid leukemia in early clinical development. As of March 24, 2026, Terns entered a merger agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme at 3/share, expected to close Q2 2026. As of... Read more

$52.92-1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#148 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $52.74Target $51.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$53.00+0.2%7 analysts
Range unavailable (7 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.88; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val3.0Qual1.6Grw5.0Mom2.9Sent5.5Ins3.8Peer6.4Tech4.1Risk6.04.1OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: TERN-701
Target reached (-12.9% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-36.0
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA-46.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-14.2%
Rev Growth—
Beta-0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.88bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$40-24.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductTERN-701
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business currently depends heavily on the successful development, marketing approval and commercialization of TERN-701.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.2
Rsi
4.2
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 76)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $52.42Resistance $52.97

Price Targets

$53
$52
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (26 sells, 0.14% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TERN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.88; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $52.74. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TERN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.91 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $52.74. Stop-loss: $52.74.

What are the risks of investing in TERN?

Concentration risk — Product: TERN-701; Target reached (-12.9% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is TERN overvalued or undervalued?

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -36.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TERN?

17 analysts cover TERN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company with one lead program, TERN-701, for chronic myeloid...

Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage oncology company with one lead program, TERN-701, for chronic myeloid leukemia in early clinical development. As of March 24, 2026, Terns entered a merger agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme at 3/share, expected to close Q2 2026. As of December 31, 2025, Terns held ,019M in cash with an accumulated deficit of 17.7M.

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